Trade deficit in October hits smallest since 2009 after Trump's tariff moves

The U.S. trade deficit six months into President Donald Trump's tariffs tumbled to its lowest level since mid-2009, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

With exports rising and imports falling, the trade shortfall was just $29.4 billion for October, down 39% from the prior month. Exports increased 2.6% while imports slipped 3.2%.

The total was the lowest since the second quarter of 2009 as the U.S. was just coming out of the financial crisis and the Great Recession.

The numbers reflect the trade activity since President Donald Trump levied his "liberation day" tariffs in April 2025. Economists and policymakers worried that the levies would work against the U.S. by inviting retaliation and slowing the movement of goods and services around the world. However, Trump has backed off many of the most severe tariff threats he made, and the data shows a strong market for U.S. products.

To be sure, the year-to-date deficit still was 7.7% higher than the same period in 2024.

Still, the decelerating imbalance "will provide a much needed boost for fourth quarter economic growth that has been hit hard by the Federal government shutdown," wrote Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds.

"The U.S. appears to be winning the trade war with tariffs curbing the imports of foreign goods, but America's trading partners are not holding any grudge as they continue to buy more American goods and services," he added. "So far the forecasts for a U.S. recession are coming up dry as productivity continues to backstop growth."

Indeed, third-quarter productivity rose at a 4.9% clip, according to a separate report Thursday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The rise in productivity helped push unit labor costs down 1.9% for the period, far more than expected and an indication that the labor market is not putting any upward pressure on inflation.

"The latest figures suggest firms are successfully doing more with less labor, giving more credence to a jobless expansion," said Matthew Martin, senior economist at Oxford Economics. "Productivity will be key to determining the economy's speed limit and inflationary dynamics. If productivity growth continues to accelerate due to tax cuts, deregulation, and technological advancements, including AI, economic growth can pick up without causing unwanted inflation."

Though hiring has been weak, the Labor Department reported Thursday that layoffs are holding low.

Initial unemployment claims for the week ending Jan. 3 totaled 208,000, pushing the four-week moving average to its lowest since April 27, 2024.