The BRL saw a rocky start to the week yesterday but ended on a firmer note yesterday after a round of BCB intervention. The BRL initial sell-off came on the back of the weekend events involving the dismissal of the Petrobras CEO by President Bolsonaro (over disagreements about fuel price changes), which sparked worries for investors about more government interference and a
move away from market-friendly policies (Bloomberg). However, a round of intervention by the BCB (which offered USD1bn via FX swaps) helped to cap the USD-BRL topside move. News that the Central Bank Autonomy Bill would be signed on 24 February also helped the BRL in late trading. Still, the developments are worrisome, especially coupled with moves elsewhere in the region and the rise in US yields. The other factor to watch is the new fiscal stimulus bill in the Senate, which is expected to see a vote on Thursday. According to Bloomberg, the new bill offers little in the way of
compensatory spending reductions, but does see a salary and hiring freeze of public sector workers extended. Still, amendments may be made, so we will need to see the final version voted on before making a full assessment.
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