Aussie is encouraged. Forecast as of 06.06.2023
The Reserve Bank of Australia continues to tighten monetary policy. Amid the Fed’s willingness to stop it in June, this approach supports the AUDUSD rally. The AUD bulls have other drivers as well. Let's talk about this topic and draw up a trading plan
Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis
Summer in the financial markets began with numerous surprises. If the US jobs report for May was a pleasant surprise, the decision of Saudi Arabia to cut oil production by 1 million barrels per day caused some concerns, and the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia was a real shock. On the eve of the RBA June meeting, derivatives showed a 66% chance of maintaining the cash rate at 3.85%, and in fact, the rate was increased by 25 basis points to 4.1%. AUDUSD saluted this decision by soaring to 1.5-month highs.
Despite the acceleration of April consumer prices from 6.3% to 6.8% and the hawkish tone of Philip Lowe, who promised to do everything necessary to return inflation to the 2%-3% target, only 30% of Bloomberg experts expected the 12th rate hike after a break in mid-spring. If the Fed is taking a "wait-and-see" approach, why shouldn't everyone else do the same? The Reserve Bank of Australia decided otherwise, which encouraged the AUDUSD bulls to go ahead.
Dynamics of Australia’s inflation and RBA interest rate
LiteFinance: Aussie is encouraged. Forecast as of 06.06.2023
Source: Bloomberg
According to Credit Suisse Group, the RBA interest rate may rise to 4.6%, which implies two more rate hikes in the current cycle by 25 basis points each. The estimated peak is close to the 4.8% used by the RBA when modeling protracted inflation battle scenarios. If the central bank remains decisive, the divergence in monetary policy will support the AUDUSD bulls. The Aussie has other bullish drivers as well.
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