USD: Focus on two US data points today Yesterday, the dollar was driven lower by Japan’s likely intervention to support the yen and a good day for bonds. Today, however, data will start taking over in the FX market. First, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of wage inflation – the employment cost index – will be released, and consensus expects an acceleration from 0.9% to 1.0% in the first quarter. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index is the other big release of the day. Last month, it surprised on the downside (104.6) and temporarily sent the dollar lower; for April, consensus expectations have been adjusted lower (104.0). With the yen stabilising and a potential acceleration in the employment cost index encouraging bets on a hawkish Fed tomorrow, the dollar has some room to appreciate today. Still, DXY may struggle to trade much higher if Japan deploys more support to the yen (14% DXY weight) and the eurozone inflation figures come in a bit stronger than expected (58% weight). In the dollar bloc, NZD will be very sensitive to New Zealand’s first quarter jobs figures overnight. Unemployment is expected to rise from 4.0% to 4.3%, and wage growth is expected to slow down. We suspect consensus is slightly too optimistic on the loosening of the labour market, and we see upside risks for NZD as markets should scale back rate cut bets further if employment figures beat expectations and raise additional concerns on non-tradeable inflation.