Today’s US calendar includes only the University of Michigan surveys. Markets will be watching closely whether the medium and long-term inflation expectations have moved at all from April’s 3.0/3.2% levels. On the Fed’s side, there are plenty of speakers to keep an eye on. Among those is Neel Kashkari, who recently argued for a higher neutral rate, which would suggest current monetary policy is not as restrictive as perceived.
In other markets, Canada will release its jobs report for April today. Expectations are for a decent 20k print and modest uptick in unemployment from 6.1% to 6.2%. There are, however, downside risks as the Canadian labour market has shown some signs of weakening in recent months. A soft print would endorse a June rate cut by the Bank of Canada, which is currently our base case scenario.
Seagull EA
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