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The market is increasingly bearish. Will the strong dollar return to rationality next year? Wall Street has become bearish on the dollar's prospects as President-elect Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are likely to put pressure on the greenback in the second half of 2025. The U.S. dollar will peak as early as the middle of next year and then begin to fall, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index expected to fall 6% by the end of next year. The dollar has soared this year and is on track for its biggest gain since 2015 as Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election and strong economic data prompted traders to lower their forecasts for the number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year. Dollar strength 'is stomach-churning. We are driving the price of an asset to levels that are unsustainable in the long term' The U.S. dollar spot index has risen about 6.3% so far this year, with much of the gains occurring around U.S. election day in early November. The dollar's gains were driven by expectations that Trump's tariffs and tax cuts will fuel inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve's task of lowering interest rates in coming months. This provides an incentive for global investors to move funds to the United States. These threats will boost the dollar, but ultimately it will fall below current levels by this time next year. Falling U.S. real interest rates and improving risk appetite constitute the most bearish dollar scenario, they added. Trump has been increasingly hawkish on trade issues, with the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar falling recently after he promised to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods over immigration and drug-related border issues. Earlier this month, Trump also blasted some emerging economies for challenging the dollar's status as the world's leading currency. All of the dollar's recent strength has led to weakness in non-dollar currencies.

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EURUSD has entered the pressure range. Although the daily line shows signs of engulfment, fundamentals do not support price strength. The KDJ indicator has entered the overbought range, and there is a need for correction. In the short term, the range treatment is maintained.

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GBP/EUR is set for another strong year. However, a major risk is an economic slowdown following UK Finance Minister Reeves' budget. Sterling expected to remain strong next year Sterling should be well supported in 2025. GBP/EUR is set to gain steadily (EUR/GBP is falling steadily); however, GBP/USD's performance is expected to be more subdued. This is mainly because economic growth and inflation in the UK are expected to be higher than in the euro zone but lower than in the United States. We expect the pound to remain strong next year. This is supported by the fact that underlying inflationary pressures are likely to remain slightly higher than in the euro area. It comes after describing the pound as a "diamond in the rough" in its new year forecast publication, with a new set of post-election forecast targets pointing to strong gains in the coming months.

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Gold trading reminder: Concerns about the situation in Russia and Ukraine have enveloped the market, and gold prices have been positive for three consecutive times! Or the sword is pointing at the middle track of Bollinger Bands At the beginning of the Asian market on Thursday, November 21, spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range and was currently trading around $2,649.57 per ounce. Gold prices climbed for the third consecutive trading day on Wednesday, hitting a new high of more than a week at US$2,655.27 per ounce and closing at US$2,650.07 per ounce. The escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine intensified geopolitical concerns and investors sought safe havens. Earlier on Wednesday, gold prices were suppressed by the 55-day moving average. In addition, the market's expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve cooled, and the U.S. dollar index resumed its gains, which once caused the gold price to fall back to $2,618.78 per ounce. This was because investors wanted to know more about the Federal Reserve's policy. Interest rate plans and policies proposed by U.S. President-elect Trump.

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