The Bank of Japan will announce its latest interest rate decision, followed by a monetary policy press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Overnight index swaps show a 15% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this week.
It is worth noting that before the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision is announced, the Federal Reserve will announce the results of its interest rate decision, and the foreign exchange market may face huge fluctuations. According to CME’s “Fed Watch”, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week is 95.4%.
Although the market generally expects the Bank of Japan to remain on hold this week, with the yen reaching 155 as a critical point, the Bank of Japan may still change its attitude and suddenly raise interest rates.
Considering the current trend of yen depreciation and the upcoming FOMC meeting before the Bank of Japan meeting, we should keep in mind that if the dollar reaches a level of 155 yen due to this event, the Bank of Japan may still suddenly decide to raise interest rates.
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