📊 Gold (XAUUSD) H1 Chart Analysis – June 23
🟡 What the chart shows:
Gold reached a peak around $3455 on June 13, then began a clear downtrend.
You’ve correctly plotted Fibonacci from the high to the recent low; current price is hovering around $3363, just below the 23.6% retracement level.
For days, price has been ranging sideways, with multiple failed attempts to break above the 38.2% level (around $3382).
Today (June 23), the market opened with a sudden spike, briefly breaking above $3382, but quickly dropped back down — a classic fake breakout.
🔎 Why did gold spike up at open… and then crash just as fast?
✅ Possible reasons:
1️⃣ The spike likely came from weekend headlines or emotional trades
Sharp moves at early Monday/Asian sessions are often driven by traders reacting to weekend geopolitical headlines (e.g., war fears in the Middle East or Ukraine).
Traders "buy the fear" on open, expecting more upside — but there’s no follow-through.
Smart money (institutions) fades the move, and price collapses.
2️⃣ Technical resistance at $3382 (Fibonacci 38.2%) did its job
This level has rejected price multiple times.
The brief breakout was likely a liquidity trap — where late buyers get caught and sold into.
3️⃣ No follow-up fundamental support
If news headlines don’t evolve into real macro escalation, the rally fades.
A strong dollar or steady bond yields may also cap gold upside in the short term.
📉 What now? Price outlook going forward:
If gold fails to reclaim $3382, this remains a correction within a broader pullback.
Support zones: $3350 and $3334 (Fibo 0.0).
If bulls manage to break and hold above $3382, next resistance zones are $3395 and $3407 (50–61.8% retracement).
⚠️ Be patient. Let the market prove itself before entering aggressively.
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