📊 Inflation & Central Banks: Mid‑2025 Policy Snapshot
As we move through July, central banks are recalibrating their strategies amid sticky inflation, slowing growth, and rising geopolitical tensions.
🇺🇸 Fed
🔹 Rate: 4.25–4.50%
🔹 Outlook: Officials remain split. Some favour a rate cut as early as September, others prefer to wait. Markets still expect two cuts by year-end.
🔹 Key concern: Tariffs may delay disinflation and complicate timing.
💶 ECB
🔹 Rate: 2.00% after June’s 25bp cut
🔹 Inflation: Down to 1.9%
🔹 Next move: Further easing possible later this year, but ECB may pause through summer.
🇬🇧 BoE
🔹 Rate: 4.25%, unchanged in June
🔹 Outlook: A cut is expected in August. Markets anticipate two more by year-end as the UK economy shows signs of fatigue.
🌐 Market Impact
📈 Fed caution is keeping US yields steady
💶 EUR & GBP benefit from diverging policy paths
⚠️ Traders should watch incoming inflation data and geopolitical risks closely
👉 Ready to act on these shifts?
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