🔹 TODAY'S KEY US DA...来自Sana Shaikh

🔹 TODAY'S KEY US DATA 🔹 📊 Core Durable Goods Orders m/m ▪️ Forecast: 0.1% ▪️ Previous: 0.5% ▪️ Actual: 0.2% ➡️ Impact: Positive for USD, Negative for Gold 📊 Durable Goods Orders m/m ▪️ Forecast: -10.4% ▪️ Previous: 16.4% ▪️ Actual: -9.3% ➡️ Impact: Positive for USD, Negative for Gold

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📉 Reasons for the Sharp Gold Decline (3871 → 3797) 1) Doji Formation on H4 Signals indecision at the top after a strong rally. Often precedes a corrective pullback when bulls lose momentum. 2) RSI Negative Divergence Price made a higher high, but RSI failed to follow → weakening momentum. Indicates potential reversal or strong corrective move. 3) Correction on Channel Upper Line Gold was touching the upper boundary of its ascending channel. Sellers stepped in at resistance, triggering a sharp downward move. 💡 Summary: The drop is a natural corrective reaction after hitting technical resistance and overextended conditions.

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📊 XAUUSD Macro Overview Federal Reserve: Cut rates by 25bps to a range of 4.00–4.25%, weakening the USD and reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against currency depreciation. Global Central Banks: ECB, BoJ, and RBI signaling further easing → synchronized global liquidity cycle, historically bullish for gold and hard assets. Energy Prices : Rising (coal, fuel), raising inflation concerns → boosting gold’s demand as an inflation hedge. Capital Flows : Outflows from emerging markets highlight risk aversion → reallocations into safe-haven assets like gold. 📈 Market Sentiment Safe-haven demand elevated amid trade disputes & geopolitical risks. Short-term volatility in FX and equities likely to drive additional gold inflows. 🔮 Outlook Lower yields + weaker USD = favorable conditions for gold. Inflationary pressures & geopolitics = sustainable medium-term support. Professional positioning: Gold expected to stay well-bid above key technical levels, with dips attracting buyers. 📌 Key Takeaway: The macro backdrop strongly favors gold. Maintain a long bias, but manage risk carefully amid near-term USD and equity volatility.

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🔸 GOLD HOLDS TIGHT RANGE – EYES ON RESISTANCE BREAK 🔄 Liquidity & Order Flow Major Liquidity Pool: 🔹 3,383 zone – Building dense liquidity, likely to be swept to trigger stop-losses above prior highs. Flow Bias: Currently favors buyers, but confirmation needed via breakout candle above the descending trendline to initiate directional momentum. 🔸 Key Supply Zone 3,383 – 3,384 Near prior swing high – institutional interest likely. Watch for liquidity trap → potential false breakout before sell-side pressure resumes. 🔹 Key Demand Zones 3,340 – 3,345 (Short-Term Support) Backed by Fair Value Gap (FVG). Sell-off absorption seen; crucial for near-term buyers. Breakdown may lead to deeper correction. 3,292 – 3,293 (Structural Demand) Strong historical demand zone. Deep liquidity aligns here. Acts as final line of defense for current bullish structure. 📌 Technical Outlook Price consolidating inside a transitional zone → awaiting breakout for next move. 🔼 Bullish Bias: Break & close above descending trendline (preferably on H4 candle) Targets: 3,384 → 3,395+ 🔽 Bearish Bias: Rejection from 3,383–3,384 supply (e.g., pin bar / bearish engulfing) Retest lower zones: 3,345, then 3,293 🎯 Focus for Trade Management: Watch zones: Supply: 3,383–3,384 Demand: 3,340–3,345 and 3,292–3,293

Sana Shaikh