📊 September Kickoff – Rate Cut or Dollar Comeback?
The first week of September sets the stage for one of the most crucial Fed decisions of the year. Markets are almost fully pricing in a 25 bps rate cut, with further easing expected in the coming months. Cooling labour data and stable inflation keep the door wide open for policy shifts.
💵 The US Dollar Index has been under pressure, hovering near recent lows as traders anticipate lower yields. Forecasts suggest more weakness could come in September, potentially driving gold and risk assets higher.
⚠️ Still, the story isn’t one-sided. Some analysts warn that if economic data surprises to the upside or inflation proves sticky, the dollar could stage a comeback. Stronger jobs reports this week and the Fed’s mid-September meeting will be decisive.
🥇 Gold has already surged to multi-month highs, with traders using it as a hedge against dollar weakness. Commodity currencies and equity markets could also benefit if the Fed confirms the start of an easing cycle.
🚀 The bottom line: September begins with a battle between dovish Fed expectations and the possibility of dollar resilience. Traders should stay alert, as volatility around jobs data and the Fed meeting could unlock new opportunities.
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