💵 Dollar Correction or New Rally Ahead of CPI?
The dollar starts the week near a 3-month high, with the DXY hovering close to the 100.00 psychological mark as traders balance growth worries and expectations for future Fed rate cuts. The next US CPI (October reading) will be released on Thursday, 13 November, at 08:30 ET, and markets are already positioning ahead of it.
🏭 Macro snapshot:
• ISM Manufacturing remains near contraction levels at 49.4, showing some improvement.
• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.2 in October, signalling expansion.
• The 10-year Treasury yield holds steady around 4.08 %, keeping the dollar supported.
🪙 Market outlook into CPI:
• Base case – Range trading with a bullish tilt. DXY resistance lies near 100.00, and dips may remain shallow while yields stay firm.
• Hot CPI (above consensus) – USD could break higher, gold may come under pressure, and risk currencies like AUD or EUR could retreat.
• Soft CPI (below consensus) – USD may correct lower toward recent support, while gold and stocks might rebound.
🕒 Before CPI: Watch the ISM Services data and yield-curve shifts. Any sustained move in 10-year yields could steer DXY momentum.
⚠️ Reminder: CPI releases often bring volatility and wider spreads. Use alerts, manage risk carefully, and consider pending orders.
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