Germany 2026 Economic Outlook
Tepid Recovery: IW expects Germany’s economy to stay sluggish as exports weaken and global trade slows.
GDP Forecasts:
2025: +0.1%
2026: +0.9% (boosted partly by more working days).
Calendar Effect: Nearly 2.5 extra working days will contribute about a third of 2026’s growth.
Govt vs IW Forecasts: Economy Ministry sees 1.3% growth in 2026 — higher than IW’s estimate.
Global Drag: World trade growth expected to drop from 4.5% in 2025 to just 1.5% in 2026 due to U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
Investment Pressure: Weak foreign trade dampens private investment; government investment likely to remain limited.
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