🌏 Morning Market Update - Thursday, 05 March 2026
📈 Asia snaps back: Risk assets are rebounding after the war-driven liquidation earlier this week. The standout is South Korea, where the KOSPI is staging an outsized bounce - a classic “relief rally” after forced selling and profit-taking. Japan is also firmer, tracking the overnight stabilisation in US risk sentiment.
🛢️ Oil remains the macro thermostat: Brent is around $83 and WTI near $76–77. The market is trading oil less like a commodity and more like a geopolitical headline index: every update on regional disruption and shipping conditions feeds directly into inflation expectations and equity multiples. If crude stays elevated, it keeps pressure on risk assets and complicates central-bank narratives.
🥇 Gold stays bid near record territory: Spot gold is around $5,175/oz as portfolios keep a hedge on. Even with equities bouncing, the demand for protection is still there - a sign that investors see this as a regime of headline volatility, not a one-day shock.
💱 FX: defensive dollar tone: The dollar is regaining strength as markets default to liquidity and safety. In this environment, FX can swing quickly: any hint of de-escalation tends to fade USD strength, while renewed escalation tends to accelerate it.
₿ Crypto: holding up, but still risk-linked: bitcoin is around $72.6k, but the intraday range is wide - which tells you liquidity is thinner and positioning is jumpy. For crypto, the key drivers today are still broader risk appetite and dollar moves, not narratives.
📅 Today’s macro focus: Markets are watching ECB minutes and US weekly jobless claims, both of which could trigger volatility in currencies, commodities, and equities. The full Economic Calendar of the Day is shown in the image attached to this post.
✅ What to watch today: oil headlines + US jobless claims = the quickest path to intraday volatility across FX, indices, and gold.
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