🌍 Morning Update – ...来自NORDFX Global

13 Mar 2026, 15:21 · 阅读量 540

🌍 Morning Update – 13 March 2026 Markets remain tense at the end of the week as geopolitical risks keep energy prices elevated and investors cautious. 🛢 Oil remains the key driver. Brent is holding near $100 per barrel, while WTI trades around $95 after a sharp rally triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East and fears of supply disruptions in key shipping routes. Rising energy prices are reviving inflation concerns and pushing investors toward defensive positioning. 💵 The US dollar stays firm as traders seek safety. The yen has weakened to its lowest level since mid-2024, while major currencies remain under pressure as markets reassess expectations for interest-rate cuts. 🟡 Gold is trading near $5,110 per ounce, attempting to stabilise but still heading for a weekly decline. Higher oil prices and rising bond yields are reducing expectations for rapid Fed easing, limiting gains in the precious-metal market. ₿ Bitcoin has recovered above $71,000, showing resilience despite the broader risk-off mood in global markets. 📊 Equities remain under pressure, with Asian markets declining and global investors positioning cautiously ahead of upcoming central-bank decisions that could shape interest-rate expectations. ⚡ Market mood this morning: Oil – high Dollar – firm Gold – steady Crypto – recovering Stocks – cautious Stay sharp, manage your risks, and trade wisely with NordFX.

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🔥 March Begins: Liquidity Shifts and Dollar Positioning March has started in full risk-off mode as the escalation between the US, Israel and Iran disrupts energy routes and reshapes global capital flows. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries around 20% of global oil supply, is facing severe traffic disruptions, tightening supply expectations immediately. ⛽⚠️ Brent crude has surged above the $80 area, fuelling renewed inflation concerns just as markets were focused on growth risks. Higher energy prices are already weighing on equities, with US and European index futures opening lower and volatility increasing across asset classes. 📉 Liquidity is rotating quickly. The US dollar has strengthened broadly as investors seek depth and safety. Commodity and high-beta currencies are under pressure, while Treasury demand is firming and gold is moving higher as classic safe-haven flows return. 🛡️💵✨ At the same time, risk assets including equities and crypto are struggling to attract sustained demand. bitcoin remains sensitive to global liquidity conditions, rather than acting as a defensive hedge in this phase. 📊 Early March positioning is therefore defined by elevated oil, defensive dollar flows and thinner liquidity. If geopolitical tension persists, volatility in FX and commodities is likely to remain high in the days ahead. 🚀 Ready to trade the shifts? Open your account now: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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🚨 Breaking: US Jobs Shock Markets The latest US Non-Farm Payrolls report delivered a major downside surprise, raising fresh concerns about the strength of the US economy. 📉 Payrolls (Feb): -92K vs +60K expected 📊 Unemployment Rate: 4.4% (up from 4.3%) 💰 Average Hourly Earnings: +3.8% YoY (slightly above expectations) 🛍 Retail Sales: -0.2% MoM Private payrolls dropped -86K, while manufacturing employment also declined sharply. The weak jobs data increases speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates earlier than previously expected. 📉 Futures markets now lean toward rate cuts starting in September, sooner than earlier projections. 📊 Market reaction: The Nasdaq (US100) moved lower immediately after the release The US dollar remains relatively firm as traders reassess Fed policy timing Volatility may increase further when US equity markets open ⚠️ A rare mix of slowing job growth and still-elevated wage pressures is reviving stagflation concerns among some investors. 📈 Trade global markets with NordFX: https://my.nordfx.com/en/regis...

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📊 Why Bond Markets Often Lead Forex Moves During CPI Weeks During CPI weeks, experienced traders often watch the bond market before Forex. Treasury yields tend to move first because they reflect expectations about inflation and Federal Reserve policy faster than currency markets. At the moment this dynamic is visible again. The US 10-year Treasury yield is trading around 4.1-4.2%, remaining close to recent highs as markets price in inflation risks linked to rising energy prices and geopolitical tensions. At the same time, 10-year real yields are holding near 1.7-1.8%, indicating relatively tight financial conditions. Why does this matter for FX? Because bond markets reprice inflation expectations first. When CPI risk increases, institutional investors typically adjust Treasury positions before currencies react. During CPI weeks markets often move in three stages: 📈 Stage 1 - Bond repricing Treasury yields move first as traders adjust expectations for inflation and future Fed policy. 💱 Stage 2 - Forex reaction The US dollar and major currency pairs follow once macro funds rebalance positions after yields stabilise. 🟡 Stage 3 - Gold response Gold tends to track real yields. When real yields rise, gold often comes under pressure. However, geopolitical shocks can temporarily support safe-haven demand. The current market environment adds extra volatility. Tensions involving Iran and risks to shipping routes in the Middle East have pushed energy prices higher, increasing inflation uncertainty and reinforcing movements in global bond markets. That is why CPI weeks often bring second-wave volatility across FX and commodities. 👀 Key signal for traders: Watch US 10Y yields and real yields before the CPI release. When the bond market moves first, Forex and gold usually follow soon after. With inflation uncertainty and geopolitical risks still elevated, bond markets may again lead the next major FX move.

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🚀 Crypto News of the Week (March 04 - 11, 2026) The crypto market remained highly active this week as institutional developments, political debates, and market volatility kept traders on edge. 💰 Bitcoin tests major resistance again Bitcoin spent much of the week trading near the $68,000 - $70,000 range, showing resilience despite geopolitical tensions and volatility in traditional markets. The move reflects continued demand from both institutional and retail traders, while the overall crypto market capitalisation remained close to the $2.6 trillion mark. 🏦 Kraken makes history with the US payments system One of the most important industry developments came from the United States. Crypto exchange Kraken gained access to the Federal Reserve’s core payments infrastructure, allowing its banking arm to connect directly to the US financial system. Analysts see this as a major step toward deeper integration between crypto companies and traditional banking. 🏛 Crypto regulation returns to the political spotlight Digital assets again became a topic in US political discussions. Lawmakers and industry representatives intensified debates around clearer rules for digital assets and stablecoins. The regulatory direction of the US remains one of the key factors influencing long-term institutional participation in the crypto market. 📈 Altcoins move with the broader risk rally Ethereum, Solana and several other large-cap cryptocurrencies followed Bitcoin higher during parts of the week. Market sentiment improved as investors rotated back into risk assets while watching macroeconomic signals from the US and Asia. 🎮 Fun fact of the week Blockchain gaming continues to grow rapidly. According to industry analytics released this week, blockchain games now account for roughly one third of all activity in the Web3 ecosystem, meaning more people interact with crypto through gaming than through trading or DeFi.

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