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The market has long treated the dollar like a sovereign oak tree — deep-rooted, immovable, casting shade over everything beneath it. But with Stephen Miran now seated at the Fed’s table, that oak suddenly looks less like a permanent fixture and more like tinder. A new ideological fire has been lit i

We have further revised our 2025 growth forecast downward, lowering it from 0.8% to 0.5%. This adjustment reflects the persistent lack of improvement in the short-term outlook for the industrial sector. Nevertheless, household consumption is expected to remain the primary driver of growth in 2025, s

As is well understood, the Fed operates with a dual mandate: to control inflation and to achieve maximum employment. Unfortunately, given the nature of the monetary tools available, the Fed is often faced with the Hobson’s choice of pursuing one objective at the expense of the other. That is, ultima

NZD/USD softens to around 0.5870 in Friday’s Asian session.China’s CPI dropped 0.4% YoY in August as factory deflation deepened. Markets expect the Fed to start rate cuts at its September meeting next week. The NZD/USD pair loses ground to near 0.5870 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The pa

The Dollar pares previous gains on Friday with all eyes on the key Nonfarm Payrolls release.ADP Employment and Jobless Claims figures seen on Thursday have heightened hopes of Fed easing.Futures markets are pricing in a 99.4% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut in September. The US Dollar is losi

The US dollar has certainly shown some better resilience this week although the gains recorded yesterday have reversed so far today – a possible delayed reaction to the steady stream of weak labour market data ahead of today’s nonfarm payrolls report. The DXY is still a touch stronger this week (0.3

The establishment financial media is in a tizzy this week over Trump's firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a Biden appointee accused of mortgage fraud. They complain that this firing is an assault on the Fed's independence. In reality, though, the notion of 'Fed independence' is a myth. Most recently,

On the radarThe Hungarian central bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 6.5%.Producer prices remained unchanged in July in Slovakia.Unemployment rate in Poland increased to 5.45 in July.Today, average gross wage in Hungary will be published at 8.30 AM CET.At 11 AM CET Croatia releases 2Q25 GDP data