XAUUSD/GOLD

UPDATE GOLD Summary and Review

Why Gold price able to surge above 1600

Framework 

1.) Descending Channel 

2.) Support and Resistance 

3.) Fibonacci 

4.) Moving Average and CS formation 

5.) Sentiment 

6.) Geopolitical 

December 24, 2019 

1.) Phase 1 US-China Trade war deal: Positive (Risk On) sepatutnya but trump masuk campur hal Hong Kong and signed uighur act for sanction on China menyebabkan kemarahan China.

(Risk Aversion favour gold ) 

2.) Investor hedging a possible inflation hike tahun 2020. Banyak spekulasi tahun depan recession hal ini push fed untuk cut interest rate.

(EXTREME Sentiment & Positioning)

3.) Investor dah position mereka untuk risiko ini..

4.) Fear of Hard No-Brexit.

Walaupun trade war positif investor dah position lot mereka untuk potensi inflation next year sebab sentiment recession 2020.. Fear 

Sebab tu lot buyer banyak, thin liquidity dan faktor technical juga push the price further up.

December 27, 2019

Gold price approaching 1520 and CS Doji was formed indicates indecision. Breakout or breakdown let the market guide us through.. 

December 31, 2019

Price melakukan retracement area 1520 Resistance selepas met fresh supply.

January 2, 2020

RISK OFF 

Gold quickly move up approaching Resistance 1550 selepas US strikes Iran dan killed Qasem Soleimani.

ISM Manufacturing pushes the price further sebab below expectation.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Mecatatkan pertumbuhan tetapi Sentiment Risk Off lebih menarik perhatian market participants

January 6, 2020

Formation of Monday gap dimana Investor in consensus to go for long disebabkan US-Iran Crisis and price retrace di resistance area 1580-86 back to 1550 but ended di 1556 met fresh demand push the price further up. 

Gap and Dip disebabkan wait and see mode developments US-Iran.

Technical: Gap at the top of the trend indicates exhaustion and change of direction from uptrend to downtrend ( Price tendency will filled the gap) 

January 8, 2020

RISK OFF

Iran attacked US airbase mengerakan harga gold ke next Resistance 1610 but ended with a retest. 

Technical refer this as a fakeout long upper wick was formed. But siapa yang hold buy assumes continuation memang Loss. 

Technical: long upper wick indicates sellers rejection, indicates buyer exhaustion, take profit, fake out and respected weekly resistance 1610

The market shrugged off US-Iran sentiment after Iran kata does not seek war ( take profit, bila nature unknown quickly price went down menunggu response trump)

ADP 202k actual more than expected attracted seller

One of the highly watched indicator

Trump's speech on Iran (Soften tone) 

Push the price further down to 1541

January 10, 2020

NFP: Actual 145k Cons 164k

The price quickly went up to 1555 and met fresh volume of the seller (Contrarian entry) pushes the price to 1548 and ended with a buyer pushes the price higher to 1560 

NFP data weaken USD and attracted more buyers to participate halted its downtrend momentum.

Observation gold price movement dari segi fundamental, technical and sentiment