- Cryptocurrency volatility is much higher than the in the stock market.
- Bitcoin prices have slightly recovered in the first week of October after flabby sideways movements in late September. It seems that major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have strong correlation to the risky assets, following movements of Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes.
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Indeed, these assets are the leading indicators of the cryptocurrency market, but crypto currencies volatility is much higher than the in the stock market.
Nobody should be tricked by any upside movements of Bitcoin since it may continue down any proper moment following decline in the U.S. stock market. Esperio analysts believe that the bearish trend continues and may lead the primary cryptocurrency to $15,000 per coin as it first target. But before that we may see some ups and downs as the market is not ready for a serious decline now.
The proper moment may emerge in the end of October, and the beginning of November. And the first driver for a downturn in the crypto market could be a quarterly report of Credit Suisse that is already troubling investors’ minds with a possible insolvency.
In case of a worse-than-expected earnings report other troubled large financial institutions like Deutsche Bank or Goldman Sachs may become a next target for sell-offs driving financial and banking sector down. This may sound an alarm for all risky assets as investors would try to escape in safe haven U.S. government debt.
The next terrifying milestone would be the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting in early November, where tough interest rates hike decisions is expected. And it seems that the Fed, and likely the European Central Bank (ECB) are not going to step on the breaks in order to get back the control over high inflation.
Even if the market would more or less survive these negative issues a strong debt crisis in various forms is likely to follow. Rising interest rates would curb economic activity, and mortgage market is likely to be the first to suffer.
This would put a serious pressure on digital assets, with Bitcoin leading the downturn towards $5,000-6,000 per coin by the end of this year.
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