Our headline SMEI inched up 0.1pt to 49.7 in September as services remained a key drag. Performance sub-index stayed below 50 for a fourth straight month; expectations turned contractionary. Manufacturing activity picked up; most services sectors reported a m/m decline in sales, Standard Chartered’s economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding note.

Subdued domestic demand dragged down Q3 performance      

“Our proprietary Small and Medium Enterprise Confidence Index (SMEI; Bloomberg: SCCNSMEI <Index>) picked up 0.1pts to 49.7 in early September (the survey closed early due to the Mid-Autumn festival) after falling to a 20-month low in August. The overall performance sub-index picked up by only 0.1pts to 48.9 in September, as manufacturing activity rebounded but services-sector performance weakened. The average performance sub-index edged down to 49.1 in Q3 from 50.8 in Q2, indicating a q/q decline in SMEs’ activity.” 

“In addition, the expectations index edged down to 49.6 in September, the first below-50 reading since end-2023. All expectations sub-indices, including sales, new orders and profitability, fell below 50. The average expectations index fell 0.8pts from Q2 to 50.1 in Q3, indicating softer SME sentiment. While the credit sub-index recovered on lower funding costs for SMEs in September, the average reading fell 1pt to 50.5 in Q3 on a deterioration in liquidity conditions.”