Gold Steadies Above $3,250 as Markets Await US CPI Print

Gold Steadies Above $3,250 as Markets Await US CPI Print

Gold (XAU/USD) regained traction to trade near $3,255 in early European hours on Tuesday, recovering from recent losses as investors shifted focus to the upcoming US inflation data for April.

Market sentiment has improved after the US and China reached a temporary 90-day truce, agreeing to sharply reduce reciprocal tariffs. While this easing in trade tensions has dampened demand for safe-haven assets like gold, expectations around the Federal Reserve’s policy path continue to anchor price movement.

April's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data—due later today—is expected to show headline inflation rising 2.4% YoY and core inflation at 2.8% YoY. A softer-than-expected print could reinforce bets on a Fed rate cut as early as September, with markets currently pricing in three reductions before year-end.

On the geopolitical front, tensions remain in South Asia and Eastern Europe. Any escalation could reignite safe-haven demand and offer fresh support to gold.

Technically, gold remains bullish on the daily chart, supported by the 100-day EMA. The next key resistance lies at $3,347, followed by $3,432 and the all-time high of $3,500. Initial downside support stands at $3,200 and $3,142.

Markets Eye US CPI for Fed Cues as Tariff Truce Offers Temporary Relief

All eyes are on the upcoming US inflation report as the Bureau of Labor Statistics prepares to release April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data at 12:30 GMT. Economists expect the headline CPI to rise 2.4% year-on-year, while core inflation is forecast to hold steady at 2.8%, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s next move.

Markets remain sensitive to inflation dynamics amid ongoing macro uncertainty. While progress in US-China trade talks has temporarily eased global tensions—both sides agreed to cut tariffs for 90 days—the broader economic outlook is still clouded by elevated input costs and uneven demand recovery.

In March, the Fed held interest rates steady and struck a cautious tone, citing risks of persistent inflation. Any upward surprise in CPI today could reinforce that caution and boost the US Dollar (USD), while a weaker reading may revive bets on a rate cut later this year.

Technical outlook for EUR/USD remains bearish after slipping below key moving averages. The pair may face renewed pressure if inflation data favors a stronger greenback.

UK Jobless Rate Rises to 4.5% in March Quarter, Wage Growth Softens

UK labour market data released Tuesday showed the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.5% in the three months to March, in line with expectations. This marks a slight increase from the 4.4% reported in the February quarter, signaling some softening in the jobs market.

The number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits rose by 5.2K in April, reversing March’s sharp decline. Meanwhile, employment change slowed, and wage growth showed signs of cooling. Regular pay (excluding bonuses) grew 5.6% YoY, slightly below forecasts, while total earnings (including bonuses) beat expectations at 5.5%.

Despite the mixed signals, GBP/USD remained resilient, holding above 1.3190 as markets weigh the implications for Bank of England policy.

US to Halve “De Minimis” Tariffs on Chinese Shipments in Trade Policy Shift

The US will reduce “de minimis” tariffs on small-value Chinese shipments from 120% to 54%, according to a White House executive order reported by Reuters. A flat $100 minimum fee remains unchanged. This move follows a broader US-China trade truce, though the deal notably excludes an exemption for e-commerce parcels under the de minimis threshold.

Separately, China lifted its ban on Boeing deliveries as part of easing tensions.

The US Dollar Index saw limited reaction, slipping 0.27% to 101.54 at the time of reporting.