June PPI Data Stalls Inflation Expectations
On July 16, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released June’s Producer Price Index (PPI), showing no change in wholesale inflation:
- Core PPI and headline PPI both remained flat (0.0%) month-over-month, defying analyst forecasts of a 0.2% gain driven by tariff effects.
- Impact on USD: The soft inflation data adds pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain its current rate stance or pivot dovish.
- The dollar slipped against major peers, as investors priced in reduced rate hike odds.
Trump’s Powell Remarks Jolt Market Sentiment
Markets were thrown into disarray after President Donald Trump reportedly floated the idea of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell,
citing dissatisfaction with policy decisions and a controversial $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters.
citing dissatisfaction with policy decisions and a controversial $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters.
- Trump later stated that action was “highly unlikely” unless fraud were involved.
- The rumors triggered brief volatility across financial markets:
- Equities dipped, Treasury yields fluctuated, The USD weakened before stabilizing,
- Gold surged nearly $50 intraday, reaching $3,377, before easing to around $3,350 following Trump’s clarification.
What Experts Are Saying
“Investors were fretting that Trump would fire Powell...rates higher and stocks lower. Then Trump said no...bond yields came down and equities went up.”— Jack Ablin, CIO at Cresset Capital“Jay Powell is a pillar of honesty and leadership...
the verbal abuse is unnecessary and harmful to the U.S.”
— David Kotok, Co-founder of Cumberland Advisors“Playing around with the Fed can often have adverse consequences
absolutely opposite of what you might be hoping for.”
— Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase
What to Watch Next?
July 17th at 7.30AM (GMT-5), the U.S. will release retail sales and unemployment claims data, which could further sway forex and commodity markets.- Strong retail sales may support the USD and pressure gold.
- A rise in jobless claims could weaken the dollar and boost safe-haven demand for gold.
Stay tuned—these numbers could add another layer of volatility to an already eventful week.
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