The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its July Producer Price Index (PPI) report on August 14, 2025, and the numbers came in scorching hot.
- Headline PPI (MoM): +0.9% vs. +0.2% expected — largest monthly gain since June 2022
- Headline PPI (YoY): +3.3% vs. +2.5% expected
- Core PPI (MoM): +0.9% vs. +0.2% expected
- Core PPI (YoY): +3.7% vs. +2.9% expected
- Drivers: Broad-based surge led by services (+1.1%) and goods (+0.7%), with notable spikes in food categories like vegetables, meat, and eggs
- Tariff Impact: Analysts cite President Trump’s sweeping tariffs as a key inflationary force, with businesses increasingly passing costs downstream
Market Reaction Snapshot
| Asset Class | Reaction Post-PPI | Commentary |
| USD | Strengthened | DXY rebounded above 98.00; short-term yields rose |
| Gold | Dropped | XAU/USD fell to $3,375 before stabilizing near $3,344; dollar strength and rate uncertainty pressured prices |
| Crypto | Sharp Selloff | Bitcoin fell from $124K to ~$117K; Ethereum dropped ~4%; rate cut optimism faded |
| S&P 500 | Mild Pullback | Index dipped 0.3% from record highs; tech held up, cyclicals lagged |
| Global Stocks | Mixed | Asia-Pacific equities dipped; Nikkei rebounded; European futures modestly higher |
Will the Fed Still Cut Rates in September?
→Market Sentiment: Traders still lean toward a cut, but aggressive easing bets have cooled
→Key Tension: CPI was cooler, but PPI complicates the narrative — inflation may not be as tame as hoped
Trading Strategy: If the Fed Cuts, How Should You Position?
Tactical Ideas for Traders:
→FX: Favor USD longs vs. AUD/NZD/JPY — rate divergence and tariff-driven inflation support Greenback strength
→Gold: Watch $3,375–$3,333 support zone; upside breakout above $3,374 could retest $3,500 if Fed signals dovishness at Jackson Hole
→Crypto: Expect choppy consolidation; BTC support at $112K is key — altcoins may outperform if Fed confirms easing
→Equities: Rotate into defensives and tech; cyclicals may face margin pressure. Dip-buying remains viable if Fed stays dovish
→Rates & Bonds: Curve steepening in play — consider long 10Y vs. short 2Y if inflation persists
What to Watch Next?
→Retail Sales (Aug 15): Will confirm consumer resilience or signal demand fatigue
→Jackson Hole Symposium (Aug 21–23): Powell’s speech could reset rate expectations
→September 17 FOMC Meeting: The ultimate pivot point for Q4 risk sentiment
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