Forex Market Snapshot 9 September 2025

📉 U.S. Dollar Weakens Amid Economic Concerns

• Dollar Index Drops to 7-Week Low: The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level in nearly seven weeks due to mounting concerns about the job market and the increased likelihood of significant Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The dollar index dropped to 97.323 in Asian trading, ahead of anticipated downward revisions to U.S. employment data for April 2024–March 2025, with economists forecasting cuts up to 800,000 jobs.
• Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Following a weak U.S. jobs report for August, Standard Chartered now expects the Federal Reserve to implement a 50-basis-point interest rate cut at its upcoming September policy meeting—doubling its previous forecast of a 25-bps cut.

💶 Euro Strengthens

• Investor Sentiment Declines: Investor morale in the euro zone sharply declined in September 2025, reaching its lowest level since April, according to a Sentix survey. The index dropped to -9.2 from -3.7 in August, defying analyst expectations of a slight improvement to -2.0.
• EUR/USD Outlook: EUR/USD is attempting to break above the 1.1720 resistance area. A sustained break above 1.1720 will flip the region to new support next week.

🇺🇸 Indian Rupee Gains

• Rupee Strengthens: Following weak U.S. jobs data, the Indian rupee is expected to open stronger, buoyed by a lower U.S. dollar and declining Treasury yields. The 1-month non-deliverable forward rates suggest the rupee will open between 87.96 and 88.00 per dollar, strengthening from Friday’s record low of 88.36.

📊 Market Positioning

• Commitment of Traders Report: Positioning remained heavily skewed, with elevated longs in EUR and JPY being partly offset by sizeable shorts in CAD, AUD, and CHF.