Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of October 27 - 01 November, 2025

Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of October 27– November 01, 2025 (GMT+8)

A highly eventful week lies ahead — packed with central bank meetings (Fed, BoJ, ECB, BoC) and top-tier U.S. inflation and GDP data that could reshape global monetary outlooks. Traders should brace for heightened volatility across USD, JPY, and EUR pairs.

🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders (MoM) — Monday, Oct 27 (20:30)
Forecast: — | Previous: -2.70%
A rebound in durable goods would indicate stronger manufacturing momentum. Another drop could reinforce signs of weakening U.S. business investment.

🇺🇸 New Home Sales (Sep) — Monday, Oct 27 (22:00)
Forecast: 710K | Previous: 800K
The housing sector remains under pressure amid high borrowing costs. A sharper-than-expected decline could weigh on market confidence and the USD.

🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) — Tuesday, Oct 28 (22:00)
Forecast: 93.9 | Previous: 94.2
Confidence is expected to remain soft. Weak consumer sentiment could hint at slower spending heading into Q4.

🇨🇦 BoC Interest Rate Decision — Wednesday, Oct 29 (21:45)
Forecast: 2.25% | Previous: 2.50%
Markets expect a rate cut, signaling the Bank of Canada may shift toward easing as growth slows. CAD volatility likely.

🛢️ U.S. Crude Oil Inventories — Wednesday, Oct 29 (22:30)
Previous: -0.961M
Oil traders will monitor whether supply draws continue; tightening inventories could support crude prices.

🇺🇸 FOMC Statement & Fed Rate Decision — Thursday, Oct 30 (02:00)
Forecast: 4.00% | Previous: 4.25%
The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps, marking a policy pivot as inflation moderates.

🇺🇸 FOMC Press Conference — Thursday, Oct 30 (02:30)
Chair Powell’s tone will be critical — dovish guidance could pressure the dollar and lift gold.

🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision — Thursday, Oct 30 (11:00)
Forecast: 0.50% | Previous: 0.50%
No change expected, but traders will watch for commentary on inflation and possible yield curve tweaks.

🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) (Q3) — Thursday, Oct 30 (20:30)
Forecast: 3.00% | Previous: 3.80%
Growth expected to slow; a sharp miss may intensify expectations for further Fed easing.

🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision — Thursday, Oct 30 (21:15)
Forecast: 2.15% | Previous: 2.15%
No change expected. Focus on Lagarde’s remarks at the 21:45 press conference for clues on 2026 rate path.

🇨🇳 Manufacturing PMI (Oct) — Friday, Oct 31 (09:30)
Forecast: 49.7 | Previous: 49.8
A reading below 50 signals contraction. China’s manufacturing pulse remains fragile amid weak external demand.

🇪🇺 CPI (YoY) (Oct) — Friday, Oct 31 (18:00)
Forecast: 2.10% | Previous: 2.20%
Eurozone inflation cooling could reinforce the ECB’s dovish stance and weigh on EUR.

🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) — Friday, Oct 31 (20:30)
Forecast: 0.20% | Previous: 0.20%

🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (YoY) — Friday, Oct 31 (20:30)
Forecast: 2.90% | Previous: 2.90%
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — any surprise higher could delay rate-cut expectations.

🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (Oct) — Friday, Oct 31 (21:45)
Forecast: 42.0 | Previous: 40.6
Manufacturing sentiment remains weak; a rebound could ease U.S. recession worries.
 
Macro Analysis
🇺🇸 United States — Central Focus Week
With both Fed and GDP data, the U.S. dominates market direction. A dovish rate cut may weigh on USD initially, but resilient GDP or inflation could limit downside.
🇪🇺 Eurozone — Inflation Cooling
Soft CPI and steady rates could add downward pressure on EUR unless Lagarde surprises with a hawkish tone.
🇯🇵 Japan — Steady Policy, Watch Yen
BoJ stability contrasts with global easing; any hint of tightening could lift JPY sharply.
🇨🇳 China — Weak Manufacturing Pulse
Sub-50 PMI readings highlight persistent weakness in industrial activity, weighing on Asian risk sentiment.
 
💡 Speculative Outlook for USD Traders
🟢 Bullish USD Setup
GDP beats expectations
Core PCE remains elevated
Powell signals cautious tone
→ Possible trades: Long USD/JPY, Short Gold, Short EUR/USD
🔴 Bearish USD Setup
GDP misses, CPI softens
Fed signals multiple rate cuts
→ Possible trades: Long Gold, Long EUR/USD, Long GBP/USD
🟡 Neutral / Range Setup
Data mixed; markets await clarity post-Fed
→ Sideways USD moves with short-term spikes in volatility.


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