Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of December 15-20, 2025...来自Followme

15 Dec 2025, 10:47 · 阅读量 17,569

Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of December 8 - 13, 2025 (GMT+8)
This week’s macro calendar (15–20 Dec, UTC+8) is packed with major rate decisions and key inflation/US data that can move FX, rates, and risk assets. With UK CPI and Eurozone CPI mid-week and BoE + ECB rate decisions on Thursday, traders should be ready for sharp intraday swings, especially across GBP, EUR, JPY, and USD pairs.

Time	Cur.	Events	Fcst	Prev
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
21:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)		119K
21:30	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)	0.30%	0.30%
21:30	USD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)	0.20%	0.20%
21:30	USD	Unemployment Rate (Nov)	4.40%	4.40%
22:45	USD	S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)		52.2
Wednesday, December 17, 2025
15:00	GBP	CPI (YoY) (Nov)		3.60%
18:00	EUR	CPI (YoY) (Nov)	2.20%	2.20%
23:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories		-1.812M
Thursday, December 18, 2025
20:00	GBP	BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec)	3.75%	4.00%
21:15	EUR	ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)	2.15%	2.15%
21:30	USD	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)		-1.7
21:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)		0.20%
21:30	USD	CPI (MoM) (Nov)		0.30%
21:30	USD	CPI (YoY) (Nov)		3.00%
21:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims		236K
Friday, December 19, 2025
11:00	JPY	BoJ Interest Rate Decision		0.50%
21:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct)		0.20%
21:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct)		2.80%
23:00	USD	Existing Home Sales (Nov)		4.10M

Key highlights:

🇺🇸 US Core Retail Sales; US Retail Sales; US Unemployment Rate; US S&P Global Services PMI – Tuesday

🇬🇧 UK CPI (YoY) (Nov); 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Nov); 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories – Wednesday

🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec); 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec); 🇺🇸 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec); 🇺🇸 US Core CPI (MoM) (Nov); 🇺🇸 US CPI (MoM) (Nov); 🇺🇸 US CPI (YoY) (Nov); 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday

🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision; 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM & YoY) (Oct); 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Nov) – Friday

Macro Analysis

U.S. Retail Sales, Jobs & Services (Tuesday)
Tuesday is the first major volatility cluster for USD. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales will signal whether consumer demand is holding up, while the Unemployment Rate provides a quick read on labour conditions. Later, S&P Global Services PMI helps confirm whether the services engine is expanding or cooling. A strong consumer + firm labour backdrop tends to keep USD supported; weaker prints can quickly revive “growth slowdown” pricing.

UK CPI & Eurozone CPI (Wednesday)
Mid-week inflation data matters most for GBP and EUR positioning ahead of Thursday’s central bank decisions. If UK CPI runs hotter than expected, it increases the chance the BoE stays restrictive longer—GBP-positive. For the Eurozone, CPI helps set the tone for how markets interpret the ECB’s stance; surprises can drive sharp moves in EUR crosses.

BoE + ECB Decisions, Plus U.S. Data (Thursday)
Thursday is the peak-risk session. The BoE and ECB rate decisions can reset forward guidance and reprice rate differentials, driving sharp moves in GBP and EUR. At the same time, the U.S. slate is heavier than usual, with CPI (MoM/YoY) and Core CPI alongside Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed index, which can trigger strong USD volatility, especially if inflation and labour signals push markets in the opposite direction of Europe’s policy messaging.

BoJ + U.S. Core PCE (Friday)
Friday keeps risk high. The BoJ rate decision can trigger fast JPY repricing (especially on USD/JPY and yen crosses). Later, Core PCE (MoM & YoY)—the Fed’s key inflation gauge—can shift USD expectations again. Existing Home Sales is secondary, but can still influence risk sentiment if it surprises meaningfully.

Speculative Outlook for USD Traders
This week is a Retail Sales → BoE/ECB → BoJ/PCE volatility chain. Here’s how it could play out:

🟢 Bullish USD Scenario

Retail Sales/Core Retail Sales beat expectations

Unemployment rate stays firm (no softening signal)

Jobless Claims remain contained

Philly Fed improves or rebounds

Core PCE stays sticky (supports “rates stay higher” pricing)

🔴 Bearish USD Scenario

Retail Sales disappoint (consumer cooling signal)

Labour indicators soften (unemployment up / claims worsen)

Philly Fed weakens (growth concerns)

Core PCE cools more than expected (rate-cut expectations reprice higher)

🟡 Wild Card: BoE/ECB & BoJ Surprises

BoE or ECB guidance shifts more hawkish/dovish than markets expect → sharp GBP/EUR moves that spill into USD

BoJ surprises on policy tone → sudden JPY volatility that can distort broader USD flows and risk sentiment

Watch the full calendar at Followme Economic Calendar Tool
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