Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of December 22 - 27, 2025 (GMT+8)
This week’s macro calendar (22–27 Dec, UTC+8) is holiday-thinned but still market-relevant, with UK GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge US Core PCE early in the week, followed by a U.S. growth + confidence cluster and then jobs + oil risk into Wednesday.
With Christmas liquidity conditions approaching, traders should be ready for outsized moves from smaller surprises, especially across USD pairs and GBP/USD.
| Time |
Cur. |
Events |
Fcst |
Prev |
Monday, December 22, 2025
|
| 15:00 |
GDP |
|
0.10% |
0.10% |
| 15:00 |
GDP |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
|
1.30% |
| 23:00 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct)
|
|
0.20% |
| 23:00 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
|
|
2.80% |
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
|
| 21:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) |
|
3.00% |
| 21:30 |
USD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
3.20% |
3.80% |
| 23:00 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence (Dec) |
91.7 |
88.7 |
Wednesday, December 24, 2025
|
| 4:01 |
USD |
New Home Sales (Sep) |
|
1K |
| 4:02 |
USD |
New Home Sales (Oct) |
|
|
| 4:03 |
USD |
New Home Sales (Nov) |
|
|
| 21:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct) |
|
0.50% |
| 21:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
220K |
224K |
| 23:00 |
USD |
Cruide Oil Inventories |
|
-1.274M |
🇬🇧 UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3); UK GDP (YoY) (Q3) – Monday
🇺🇸 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM & YoY) (Oct) – Monday
🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct); US GDP (QoQ) (Q3); CB Consumer Confidence (Dec) – Tuesday
🇺🇸 New Home Sales (Sep/Oct/Nov); Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct); Initial Jobless Claims; Crude Oil Inventories – Wednesday
Macro Analysis
1. UK GDP + U.S. Core PCE (Monday)
Monday sets the tone with UK GDP and US Core PCE in the same session window. UK GDP (QoQ, Q3) is penciled at 0.10% vs 0.10% prior, so any deviation matters for GBP sensitivity. Later, Core PCE (Oct) is the key USD inflation input (Fed’s preferred gauge): a hotter print can quickly reinforce “sticky inflation” pricing, while a cooler reading can revive “disinflation / easing” expectations—often amplified in thinner holiday liquidity.
2. U.S. Durable Goods, GDP & Confidence (Tuesday)
Tuesday is the main USD growth-and-sentiment cluster. US GDP (QoQ, Q3) is seen at 3.20% vs 3.80% prior, and CB Consumer Confidence (Dec) is expected at 91.7 vs 88.7 prior—a combo that can reshape short-term USD tone. Stronger activity + improving confidence tends to support USD (and weigh on rate-cut pricing), while downside surprises can quickly reprice toward “growth cooling,” especially if Durable Goods also weakens.
3. Housing + Claims + Oil (Wednesday)
Wednesday brings a batch of New Home Sales (Sep/Oct/Nov) (potentially catch-up prints), plus Initial Jobless Claims and Crude Oil Inventories, which is a mix that can move both USD and risk sentiment. Claims are forecast at 220K vs 224K prior: Softer labour signals (higher claims) can pressure USD if markets interpret it as cooling momentum. Oil inventories (prior -1.274M) can sway energy/risk sentiment, which can spill into USD via broader risk-on/risk-off positioning.
4. Holiday Liquidity Risk (Thu–Sat)
The late-week setup is less about scheduled releases and more about liquidity conditions. Around Christmas, spreads can widen, follow-through can be uneven, and headline-driven spikes can travel further than usual. The practical play is tighter risk control: treat breakouts with extra caution, and expect more “stop-run” style volatility even without a full calendar.
Speculative Outlook for USD Traders
This week is a PCE → GDP/Confidence → Claims/Oil volatility chain. Here’s how it could play out:
🟢 Bullish USD Scenario
Core PCE comes in hotter than expected (supports “rates stay restrictive” pricing)
GDP (Q3) holds up better than feared (vs 3.20% fct / 3.80% prior)
Consumer Confidence beats (above 91.7)
Jobless Claims stay contained (≤220K)
Risk sentiment stays steady even if oil moves
🔴 Bearish USD Scenario
Core PCE cools more than expected (rate-cut expectations reprice higher)
GDP underwhelms (growth scare) and/or Confidence disappoints (below 91.7)
Claims rise meaningfully (labour cooling signal)
Oil/risk sentiment turns defensive and pulls USD positioning into churn
🟡 Wild Card: Holiday Liquidity Distortion
Thin liquidity amplifies reactions: even a “small beat/miss” in PCE, GDP, or Claims can trigger bigger-than-normal USD swings
Sudden moves in oil inventories can spill into broader risk sentiment, distorting USD directionality in the short run
Watch the full calendar at Followme Economic Calendar Tool
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