On the XAUUSD (Gold) H1 timeframe, gold previously suffered a deep bearish correction from the all-time high at 4551, plunging sharply to 4302 and extending further to 4274. The recovery attempt that followed was initially capped around the 4401 area, confirming strong overhead supply. However, price structure has since shifted decisively, with a clear trend reversal unfolding as gold surged aggressively from the 4310 demand zone up toward 4519. The current price is around 4492 and remains biased to the upside, although the shrinking candle sizes indicate a potential decline in volatility.
From a technical perspective, bullish momentum is now firmly re-established. Price action continues to print higher highs and higher lows, supported by a rising channel structure and dynamic support from the mid-band area. Bulls Power has turned positive, confirming strengthening upside pressure following the earlier exhaustion phase. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) is positioned in the upper range, reflecting strong bullish momentum, although short-term consolidation or minor pullbacks remain possible given proximity to overbought conditions. Overall, technical indicators continue to favor bullish continuation as long as price holds above the key recovery base.
Fundamentally, the renewed strength in gold is closely linked to escalating US–Venezuela geopolitical tensions, which have triggered strong reactions from other major countries including China and Russia. Heightened geopolitical uncertainty has driven a defensive shift in global capital flows, weakening confidence in the US dollar and increasing demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. As long as geopolitical risks remain elevated and risk sentiment stays fragile, gold is likely to remain well-supported, with upside bias continuing to dominate near-term price action.
Market Observation & Strategy Advice
1. Current Position: XAUUSD is trading around 4492, maintaining strong upside momentum.
2. Resistance: The immediate resistance is located around 4519–4551, where previous all-time highs and strong supply pressure are expected to re-emerge.
3. Support: Key support is observed around 4401, followed by the major demand zone near 4310–4274, which previously triggered the strong bullish reversal.
4. Indicators: Bulls Power remains positive, confirming bullish strength, while Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) is near overbought territory, signaling strong momentum with potential for brief consolidation. As long as price continues to respect the rising channel structure, the broader bias remains bullish with pullbacks viewed as corrective opportunities.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:
- Bullish continuation: Look for buy-on-dip opportunities near dynamic channel support or the 4400 area, with targets toward the 4519–4551 resistance zone.
- Breakout scenario: A clean H1 close above 4551 may open the door for trend acceleration, with momentum-driven follow-through.
- Risk management: A sustained break below 4310 would invalidate the bullish structure and signal a potential return to broader consolidation or downside risk.
Market Performance:
Precious Metals Last Price % Change
XPTUSD 2,403.52 −0.19%
XAGUSD 82.4509 +1.48%
Today’s Key Economic Calendar:
US: API Crude Oil Stock Change
AU: Building Permits MoM Prel
AU: Inflation Rate MoM & YoY
AU: RBA Trimmed Mean CPI MoM & YoY
DE: Retail Sales MoM & YoY
UK: S&P Global Construction PMI
EU: Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash
EU: Inflation Rate MoM & YoY Flash
US: MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate
US: ADP Employment Change
US: Factory Orders MoM
US: ISM Services PMI
CA: Ivey PMI s.a
US: JOLTs Job Openings
US: EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change
Risk Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor for personalized investment strategies.
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