2026 Commodities Forecast: Gold, Silver, and Oil Set for Major Moves Ahead

Gold Price Movement and Future Predictions:
Gold continues to be one of the most reliable safe-haven assets in times of economic uncertainty. The latest price for XAU/USD stands at $4,468.25, a slight decrease of 0.20% from the previous day. However, when we look at broader trends, gold has experienced growth in the 1-month (+6.14%) and 3-month (+12.36%) periods.
Looking ahead in 2026, experts are optimistic about gold's price trajectory. Some analysts predict that gold could hit $5,000 per ounce in the first half of the year, driven by factors like global inflation, economic instability, and increasing demand. 
Key Factors Affecting Gold:
- U.S. economic data, particularly payroll reports, can influence the strength of the U.S. Dollar.
- Geopolitical risks, including growing tensions in Europe and Asia.
- Central bank policies, particularly in the context of rising inflation and economic instability.

Silver's Market Shifts and Short-Term Volatility:
Silver (XAG/USD) has seen some recent fluctuations, with a slight drop of -0.11% to $76.92. However, silver’s volatility has been accompanied by bullish sentiment over the longer term.
One significant factor for silver in 2026 is the ongoing squeeze in London’s silver inventory, which has led to major price swings. While silver faces short-term corrections, analysts remain confident that the broader market structure remains bullish. Barclays has upgraded its metals outlook, predicting that copper will rise by 78%, which will likely influence silver’s price as well.
Factors to Watch for Silver:
- Short squeezes and inventory levels in major trading hubs like London.
- Industrial demand for silver, particularly in electronics and solar industries.

Source: Followme's "Markets" feature

Crude Oil: Geopolitical Influence and Supply Disruptions
Crude oil (WTI) has been on a positive trajectory recently, trading at $58.23 with a 0.81% increase. A key factor contributing to this rise is concerns over supply disruptions in major oil-producing regions, particularly Venezuela and Iran. These geopolitical risks are likely to continue influencing oil prices throughout 2026.
In addition, the political landscape in the U.S. remains a crucial factor for oil markets. Former President Trump’s potential diplomatic actions or new leadership in the U.S. could lead to significant changes in trade and foreign policy, directly affecting oil prices. The market is also focused on potential discussions surrounding sanctions, global supply agreements, and OPEC’s strategies.
Crucial Drivers for Oil:
- Global supply disruptions, especially from regions like Venezuela and Iran.
- U.S. energy policy, economic data, and geopolitical decisions.
- Geopolitical stability in the Middle East and its effect on oil exports.

Key Macroeconomic Events Impacting Gold, Silver, and Oil in 2026:
Middle East Tensions: Instability in oil-producing countries like Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq could cause supply disruptions, raising oil prices.
U.S. Foreign Policy Changes: Shifts in U.S. Foreign policy, particularly under Trump or new leadership, could impact oil and precious metals.
Global Economic Uncertainty: Ongoing trade disputes and political instability will add volatility to gold and silver markets.
Gold & Silver as Safe-Havens: Economic crises or geopolitical instability could drive demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets.
Elections & Political Shifts: Key elections and escalating tensions between global powers could trigger price fluctuations in these commodities.