Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of January 12-17, 2026

Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of January 12 - 17, 2026 (GMT+8)
This week’s macro calendar is driven by U.S. inflation + consumer demand (CPI → Retail Sales) and rates sensitivity (Treasury auctions), with follow-through risk from U.S. labour + manufacturing checks late-week. Expect the sharpest moves around the U.S. CPI on Tuesday and U.S. Retail Sales on Wednesday, while German CPI and UK GDP can shift EUR/GBP pricing and ripple into broader USD positioning.
 

Macro Analysis
U.S. CPI Stack (Core CPI + CPI) – Tuesday
CPI is the main volatility trigger for USD and yields this week. A hotter CPI/Core CPI print supports a “sticky inflation” narrative (USD-supportive via higher yields), while a softer print can pull yields down and weigh on USD, especially if markets interpret it as faster disinflation.

U.S. Demand Stack (Retail Sales + Core Retail Sales + PPI) – Wednesday
Retail Sales is the key growth confirmation after CPI. Stronger sales supports “resilient demand” and can extend USD strength; weaker sales can flip the tone into growth concerns and increase two-way volatility—especially if PPI contradicts Tuesday’s inflation signal.

U.S. Rates Supply (10Y + 30Y Auctions) – Tuesday/Wednesday
Treasury auctions can shift yields and amplify (or fade) CPI/Retail Sales reactions. Weak demand can push yields up and support USD; strong demand can cap yields and dampen USD upside even if data is firm.

U.S. Housing Pulse (New Home Sales + Existing Home Sales) – Tuesday/Wednesday
Housing is secondary versus CPI/Retail Sales, but surprises can influence the growth narrative at the margin—especially if paired with big moves in yields.

Crude Oil Inventories – Wednesday
 Inventory surprises can move oil sharply, impacting inflation expectations and oil-sensitive FX. A large draw can lift crude and inflation hedges; a big build can pressure crude and cool inflation fears.

U.S. Labour + Manufacturing Checks (Claims + Philly Fed + S&P Global Manufacturing PMI) – Thursday
 This is the late-week “confirmation set” for whether the CPI/Retail Sales-driven move should hold. Rising claims can signal cooling; improving manufacturing indicators can reinforce stabilization and support risk sentiment and yields.

Germany & UK Macro (German CPI + UK GDP) – Friday/Thursday
The German CPI influences EUR rate expectations, while UK GDP can shift GBP pricing. Big surprises can move EUR/GBP crosses and indirectly affect USD positioning through broad risk and rates repricing.

Speculative Outlook for USD Traders
This is a CPI + Retail Sales week, expecting positioning to shift fast as inflation and demand data either confirm (or contradict) the rates narrative.

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