Global markets entered today’s session in a mixed “risk-on” and “risk-off” mode. On one hand, Asian equities surged in tandem with Wall Street’s record highs, led by the tech sector and the AI growth narrative. On the other hand, safe-haven assets such as gold rallied sharply to fresh records, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to political risks and concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s independence.

Against this backdrop, investors are leaning toward a “selective risk-on” strategy: adding exposure to growth equities while maintaining defensive hedges via gold, and closely monitoring upcoming US inflation data.

Equities: Nikkei hits a record high, Asia rallies on Wall Street momentum

Japan took center stage today as the Nikkei 225 jumped to an all-time high, rising more than 3% at one point, while Topix also set a new record. The move was driven by three key factors:

• Wall Street spillover: US markets previously closed higher, with major indices continuing to notch fresh highs.

• Japan fiscal stimulus expectations: speculation around the possibility of an early election raised hopes for pro-growth policy support.

• Tech leadership: technology shares led the rally, especially chip/AI-related names, alongside exporters benefiting from a weaker yen.

Beyond Japan, broader Asian equities also advanced in unison, with MSCI Asia-Pacific posting a clear upward trend during the day.

Market takeaway: Capital continues to favor growth themes (AI, tech) as the macro backdrop has not deteriorated materially, but elevated macro risks keep investors from going “all-in.”

Forex: USD volatility spikes; record-weak JPY raises intervention risk

In FX markets, the US dollar saw notable volatility as confidence in US monetary policy predictability was tested by political risks and Fed-related headlines.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened to historical lows, creating a two-sided impact:

• Positive for Japanese equities (exporters) as earnings benefit from FX translation gains

• Negative for market stability, as it fuels concerns that Japan could step in to stabilize the currency if depreciation accelerates too sharply

Investors are now focusing on upcoming US inflation data (CPI)—a crucial driver shaping rate expectations and the USD’s direction in the sessions ahead.

Commodities: Gold breaks out to new records; oil edges up on Iran risk

If equities represent “risk-on,” then gold is currently the clearest expression of “risk-off.”

During the session, gold surged above $4,600/oz and continued to print record territory. Key drivers include:

• Concerns over the Fed’s independence (policy credibility risk)

• Defensive demand amid political uncertainty and the risk of persistent inflation

Meanwhile, oil prices edged higher on fears of potential supply disruptions related to Iran and broader geopolitical tensions, prompting increased hedging activity.

Notable point: Oil is rising, but not in a shock-move—suggesting markets view geopolitical risks as real, but not yet pricing the worst-case scenario.

Crypto: Bitcoin stuck around $90,000 as markets wait for macro signals

Crypto markets failed to deliver a breakout today. Bitcoin traded sideways around the $90,000 level, reflecting a broader wait-and-see stance ahead of fresh US macro signals (inflation, rates, policy).

Overall, crypto flows remain largely tactical: there has been a rebound, but not enough of a catalyst to trigger a decisive breakout.

Conclusion: A sensitive market regime - “buy growth, but stay defensive.”

Today’s picture is clear:

• Equities are rising on AI momentum and growth expectations

• Gold is surging on macro/political risk

• USD and JPY are volatile on rate expectations and policy headlines

• Oil is higher on geopolitics

• Crypto is flat, waiting for a catalyst

3 key factors to watch over the next 24–48 hours

1. US CPI and guidance on rate direction

2. Fed / US political headlines (headline risk)

3. Developments in Iran & the Middle East, which will determine the level of risk premium in oil