On the XAUUSD (Gold) H1 chart, price action remains extremely aggressive as Gold successfully printed another fresh All-Time High, validating the bullish continuation scenario projected in the previous session. The latest ATH was formed around 4630, followed by a mild corrective phase. After reaching this peak, price retraced in a controlled manner and is currently trading around 4593, forming a relatively well-structured sequence of bearish candles. Despite the pullback, the overall structure remains bullish, with the correction appearing more as a technical pause rather than a trend reversal, keeping Gold within a strong bullish framework.
Technically, Gold remains supported by a well-defined bullish structure, with price still trading above key Fibonacci retracement levels derived from the latest impulsive rally. The 50.0%–61.8% Fibonacci zone continues to act as a dynamic demand area, preventing deeper downside movement. Bollinger Bands are expanding significantly, reflecting elevated volatility following the ATH breakout, while price remains near the middle band, reinforcing bullish dominance. The Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) has cooled down from overbought territory and is now stabilizing in the mid-range, signaling a healthy momentum reset rather than exhaustion. Meanwhile, MACD remains firmly in positive territory, although histogram bars have started to flatten, indicating short-term consolidation within a broader bullish trend.
From a fundamental perspective, the latest record-breaking move in Gold is largely driven by escalating global geopolitical tensions. Recent statements by Trump regarding Venezuela and Greenland have intensified uncertainty across international relations, prompting strong reactions from the European Union as well as major global powers including China, Russia, and Japan. These developments have amplified concerns over global stability and policy fragmentation, reinforcing safe-haven demand. As geopolitical risks remain elevated, Gold continues to attract strong inflows, supporting the bullish bias despite short-term technical corrections.
Market Observation & Strategy Advice
1. Current Position: XAUUSD is trading around 4593, undergoing a healthy correction after printing a new ATH at 4630, while maintaining a bullish market structure.
2. Resistance: The 4630 – 4650 zone acts as the next upside barrier, where profit-taking pressure may re-emerge if bullish momentum accelerates.
3. Support: The 4551 – 4501 area remains a critical demand zone, aligned with Fibonacci retracement levels and previous breakout structure.
4. Indicators: Stochastic Oscillator cooling from overbought territory suggests momentum normalization rather than a trend shift. Expanding Bollinger Bands indicate sustained high volatility, increasing the probability of sharp intraday swings.
5. Trading Strategy Suggestions:
- Bullish continuation setup: Look for buy-on-dip opportunities near the 4551 – 4501 support zone, with confirmation from bullish candlestick reactions.
- Breakout strategy: A clean break and sustained hold above 4630 may open the path toward higher psychological levels, favoring momentum-based entries.
- Risk management: Due to extreme volatility, traders are advised to adjust position sizing and apply disciplined stop-loss placement below key structural supports.
Market Performance:
Precious Metals Last Price % Change
XPTUSD 2,314.13 −0.29%
XAGUSD 84.0058 −1.36%
Today’s Key Economic Calendar:
US: Fed Bostic & Barkin Speech
US: Fed Williams Speech
AU: Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index
JP: Current Account
UK: BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
US: ADP Employment Change Weekly
US: Core Inflation Rate MoM & YoY
US: CPI s.a
US: Inflation Rate MoM & YoY
US: New Home Sales
US: Fed Musalem Speech
Risk Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investments involve risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your financial advisor for personalized investment strategies.
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