Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of January 19 - 24, 2026 (GMT+8)
This week’s macro calendar is driven by U.S. inflation (Core PCE) + late-week growth checks (S&P Global PMIs), with BoJ rate decision as the key Asia risk event. Early week, China GDP and Euro CPI can move broader risk tone, while UK CPI + UK GDP can swing GBP pricing. Expect the sharpest moves around U.S. Core PCE (Thu 23:00) and BoJ decision (Fri 11:00), with follow-through risk from oil inventories and PMIs later Friday.
| Time |
Cur. |
Events |
Fcst |
Prev |
| Monday, January 19, 2026 |
| 10:00 |
CNY |
GDP (YoY) (Q4) |
4.50% |
4.80% |
| 18:00 |
EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Dec) |
2.00% |
2.00% |
| Wednesday, January 21, 2026 |
| 15:00 |
GBP |
CPI (YoY) (Dec) |
3.30% |
3.20% |
| 21:30 |
USD |
U.S. President Trump Speaks |
|
|
| Thursday, January 22, 2026 |
| 21:30 |
USD |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
4.30% |
3.80% |
| 21:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
203K |
198K |
| 23:00 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov) |
0.20% |
0.20% |
| 23:00 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov) |
2.70% |
2.80% |
| Friday, January 23, 2026 |
| 1:00 |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
|
3.391M |
| 11:00 |
JPY |
BoJ Interest Rate Decision |
0.75% |
0.75% |
| 22:45 |
USD |
S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) |
52.8 |
52.5 |
| 22:45 |
USD |
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) |
52.1 |
51.8 |
🇨🇳 GDP (YoY) (Q4) – Monday
🇪🇺 CPI (YoY) (Dec) – Monday
🇬🇧 CPI (YoY) (Dec) – Wednesday
🇺🇸 U.S. President Trump Speaks – Wednesday
🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) (Q3) – Thursday
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday
🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov) – Thursday
🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov) – Thursday
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories – Friday
🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision – Friday
🇺🇸 S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) – Friday
🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) – Friday
Macro Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Inflation Anchor (Core PCE MoM + YoY) – Thu: Core PCE is a top-tier input for Fed inflation framing. A hotter print (or less disinflation) tends to lift yields and support USD; a softer print can pull yields down and pressure USD, especially if markets lean into a “faster disinflation” narrative.
🇺🇸 U.S. Labour Pulse (Initial Claims) – Thu: Claims is the “growth stress check.” Lower-than-expected claims supports a tight-labour narrative (USD/yields supportive). Higher-than-expected claims can weaken risk tone and weigh on USD if yields fall.
🇺🇸 U.S. Activity Confirmation (S&P Global PMIs) – Fri: PMIs can validate (or fade) Thursday’s PCE-driven move. Stronger PMIs support a resilient-growth narrative; weaker PMIs can amplify growth concerns and increase two-way volatility into the close.
🇯🇵 BoJ Rate Decision – Fri: Even if the rate is unchanged, forward guidance can drive large moves in JPY crosses and spill over into global rates/risk. A surprise hawkish tilt can strengthen JPY and pressure USDJPY; a dovish tone can do the opposite.
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories – Fri: Inventory surprises can swing oil quickly, feeding into inflation expectations and oil-sensitive FX. A big draw can lift crude and re-price inflation hedges; a big build can pressure crude and cool inflation fears.
🇬🇧 UK CPI + UK GDP – Wed/Thu: UK CPI shapes BOE expectations; UK GDP can shift the growth narrative. Big surprises can move GBP pairs and spill into broader USD positioning via risk and rate repricing.
🇨🇳🇪🇺 China GDP + Euro CPI – Mon: China GDP can set the week’s early risk tone (Asia + commodities sensitivity). Euro CPI can shift EUR rates expectations and influence USD via relative-yield repricing
Speculative Outlook for USD Traders
This is a CPI + Retail Sales week, expecting positioning to shift fast as inflation and demand data either confirm (or contradict) the rates narrative.
🟢 Bullish USD Scenario
Core PCE (MoM and/or YoY) prints firmer than expected (sticky inflation signal)
Claims come in below forecast (labour stays tight)
PMIs hold up / improve (growth stays resilient)
Oil inventories show a draw that lifts crude and inflation expectations
🔴 Bearish USD Scenario
Core PCE comes in softer (disinflation narrative strengthens)
Claims print above forecast (growth cooling signal)
PMIs soften (risk sentiment weakens, yields pressured)
Oil inventories show a build (crude pressured, inflation fears cool)
🟡 Wild Cards (High Whipsaw Risk)
MoM vs YoY Core PCE sending mixed signals
Speech-driven volatility (policy/geopolitical tone impacting risk)
BoJ guidance surprising markets and triggering fast repositioning in USDJPY
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