Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of February 2 - 7, 2026 (GMT+8)
This week’s macro calendar is primarily influenced by U.S. inflation data (Core PCE) and growth checks later in the week (S&P Global PMIs), with the BoJ rate decision as the key risk event in Asia. Early in the week, U.S. Economic data such as CPI and job openings will set the tone for broader risk sentiment. The sharpest moves are expected around the U.S. Core PCE (Thu 23:00) and the BoJ decision (Fri 11:00), followed by risks from oil inventories and PMIs on Friday.
| Time | Cur. | Events | Fcst | Prev |
| USD | ||||
| USD | ||||
| CPI (YoY) (Jan) | ||||
| ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan) | ||||
| USD | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | |||
| Crude Oil Inventories | ||||
| ECB Interest Rate Decision (Feb) | ||||
| Initial Jobless Claims | ||||
| ECB Press Conference | ||||
| Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) | ||||
| Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) | ||||
| Unemployment Rate (Jan) |
| Key highlights: |
🇺🇸 U.S. Core PCE (MoM & YoY) – Thu: Key inflation data. A higher print strengthens USD, a softer print weakens it.
🇺🇸 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – Thu: Lower claims support tight labor market (USD bullish); higher claims weaken USD.
🇺🇸 S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI – Fri: Strong PMIs support USD, weak PMIs pressure USD.
🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision – Fri: Any hawkish surprise strengthens JPY, dovish guidance weakens JPY.
🇬🇧 UK CPI (YoY) – Wed: Could impact GBP and USD positioning.
🇺🇸 U.S. President Trump Speaks – Wed: Potential volatility in USD from remarks.
🇺🇸 U.S. GDP (QoQ) – Thu: Strong GDP supports USD; weak GDP pressures USD.
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories – Fri: A draw supports USD, a build weakens USD.
Macro Analysis
🇺🇸 U.S. Inflation (Core PCE MoM + YoY) – Thu: Core PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and a key factor in shaping the interest rate outlook. A stronger-than-expected figure could signal persistent inflation and support further rate hikes, thereby strengthening the USD.
🇺🇸 U.S. Labour Market (Initial Jobless Claims) – Thu: Claims data is often viewed as a "growth stress check." A lower-than-expected reading supports a narrative of a tight labor market and economic resilience, which could be positive for the USD.
🇺🇸 U.S. Growth and Activity (S&P Global PMIs) – Fri: The PMIs will offer insights into the strength of U.S. manufacturing and services sectors. A robust PMI number would reinforce the narrative of economic resilience, providing support for the USD.
🇯🇵 BoJ Rate Decision – Fri: While the BoJ is unlikely to change rates, the accompanying forward guidance will be closely watched. A more hawkish outlook could lead to a stronger JPY, while a dovish stance could keep the yen weak.
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories – Fri: Crude oil inventory data can significantly impact inflation expectations. A larger-than-expected draw could push oil prices higher, stoking inflation fears and benefiting oil-sensitive currencies like CAD.
🇬🇧 UK CPI + UK GDP – Wed/Thu: UK CPI influences expectations for the Bank of England’s policy, while UK GDP data provides a broader view of economic growth. Significant surprises could lead to volatility in GBP pairs and spill over into broader USD positioning.
Speculative Outlook for USD Traders
This week offers a mix of inflation, growth, and labor market data, which will likely drive market positioning as traders adjust expectations based on the data.
🟢 Bullish USD Scenario:
Core PCE (MoM and/or YoY) prints firmer than expected, signaling sticky inflation (USD supported).
Initial Jobless Claims come in below expectations, reinforcing the narrative of a tight labor market (positive for USD).
S&P Global PMIs show stronger-than-expected growth, supporting resilience in the economy and lifting the USD.
Oil inventories show a draw, pushing crude prices higher and raising inflation expectations (positive for USD).
🔴 Bearish USD Scenario:
Core PCE comes in softer, strengthening the disinflation narrative (bearish for USD).
Initial Jobless Claims exceed expectations, signaling economic cooling (negative for USD).
Weaker-than-expected PMIs suggest a slowdown in both manufacturing and services, weighing on the USD.
Crude oil inventories show a build, easing inflationary pressures and potentially leading to lower oil prices (bearish for USD).
Weaker-than-expected PMIs suggest a slowdown in both manufacturing and services, weighing on the USD.
Crude oil inventories show a build, easing inflationary pressures and potentially leading to lower oil prices (bearish for USD).
🟡 Wild Cards (High Whipsaw Risk):
Mixed signals from MoM vs YoY Core PCE data, with market reactions shifting rapidly (could trigger volatility).
Speech-driven volatility or unexpected geopolitical developments that could impact market sentiment (potentially volatile for USD).
BoJ's rate decision and forward guidance surprised the market, leading to sharp movements in JPY and global rates/risk.
Speech-driven volatility or unexpected geopolitical developments that could impact market sentiment (potentially volatile for USD).
BoJ's rate decision and forward guidance surprised the market, leading to sharp movements in JPY and global rates/risk.
Watch the full calendar at Followme Economic Calendar Tool
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