Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of February 9-16, 2026

🇺🇸 Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) – Tuesday 21:30
🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) – Tuesday 21:30
🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan) – Wednesday 21:30
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) – Wednesday 21:30
🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate (Jan) – Wednesday 21:30
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories – Wednesday 23:30
🇺🇸 10-Year Note Auction – Thursday 02:00
🇬🇧 GDP (YoY) (Q4) – Thursday 15:00
🇬🇧 GDP (MoM) (Dec) – Thursday 15:00
🇬🇧 GDP (QoQ) (Q4) – Thursday 15:00
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday 21:30
🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Jan) – Thursday 23:00
🇺🇸 30-Year Bond Auction – Friday 02:01
🇺🇸 CPI (MoM) (Jan) – Friday 21:30
🇺🇸 CPI (YoY) (Jan) – Friday 21:30
🇺🇸 Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) – Friday 21:30

Macro Analysis:
🇺🇸 U.S. Growth Pulse (Retail Sales + Core Retail Sales) – Tue:
Consumer spending is the first big “growth check” of the week. A stronger print supports the resilience narrative (yields/ USD supported), while a weaker result can shift pricing toward slower growth and push risk sentiment more cautiously into the mid-week labor data.

🇺🇸 U.S. Labour Anchor (NFP + Unemployment + AHE) – Wed:
This is the main USD volatility anchor before CPI. Payrolls sets the headline tone, unemployment frames slack/tightness, and Average Hourly Earnings feeds directly into inflation sensitivity. A “hot” labor bundle typically lifts yields and supports USD; a softer bundle can trigger fast repricing lower in yields and a lighter USD tone.

🇺🇸 U.S. Labour Stress Check (Initial Claims) – Thu:
Claims acts as the near-term confirmation signal after NFP. Lower-than-expected claims reinforces tight-labor conditions (USD/yields supportive). Higher claims can validate cooling momentum and amplify any post-NFP risk-off / lower-yield move.

🇺🇸 U.S. Inflation Anchor (CPI + Core CPI) – Fri:
This is the week’s decisive repricing event. CPI (headline) shapes broad inflation expectations, while Core CPI typically carries the heavier policy/real-yield impact. Expect positioning to compress into the release, then expand quickly on surprise magnitude vs expectations.

🇺🇸 Rates Volatility Amplifiers (10Y Auction Thu + 30Y Auction Fri):
Treasury auctions can swing yields and curve shape, especially when they bracket the week’s biggest data. Weak demand can push yields up (supporting USD), while strong demand can ease yields and soften USD—often amplifying whatever narrative NFP/CPI sets.

🇺🇸 Energy → Inflation Sensitivity (Crude Oil Inventories) – Wed:
Oil moves can feed into inflation expectations and risk tone. A draw that lifts crude can keep inflation concerns “alive” into CPI; a build that pressures crude can cool inflation fears and support a softer rates impulse.

🇬🇧 UK GDP (YoY/MoM/QoQ) – Thu:
This is the key GBP risk event. Surprises can move GBP sharply and spill into broader USD flows through relative-rate repricing and risk sentiment, especially with U.S. claims/housing later the same day.