Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of March 9- 14, 2026 (GMT+8)
This week’s macro calendar is driven by a dense mix of U.S. inflation, growth, and labour signals, with market attention building from Wednesday’s CPI cluster into a powerful Friday window of U.S. GDP, Core PCE, and JOLTS data. Early in the week, Japan’s Q4 GDP offers an important read on regional growth sentiment, while U.S. Existing Home Sales helps frame the housing side of the U.S. cycle.
Mid-week, the focus shifts sharply to inflation as German CPI provides a key EUR pricing input and the U.S. CPI, Core CPI, and crude inventory sequence has the potential to quickly reset expectations for inflation, yields, and USD direction.
The week closes with a heavy back to back flow of UK activity data and U.S. macro releases, where UK Manufacturing Production, Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change, and GDP (MoM) can move GBP, while U.S. GDP, Core PCE, and JOLTS can generate fast two way volatility in USD into the weekly close.
| Time | Cur. | Events | Fcst | Prev |
| GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | ||||
| Existing Home Sales (Feb) | ||||
| German CPI (MoM) (Feb) | ||||
| CPI (MoM) (Feb) | ||||
| CPI (YoY) (Feb) | ||||
| Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) | ||||
| Crude Oil Inventories | ||||
| Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) | ||||
| Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jan) | ||||
| GDP (MoM) (Jan) | ||||
| GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | ||||
| Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) | ||||
| Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan) | ||||
| JOLTS Job Openings (Jan) |
| Key highlights: |
🇯🇵 GDP (QoQ) (Q4) on Tuesday 06:50
🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Feb) on Tuesday 21:00
🇩🇪 German CPI (MoM) (Feb) on Wednesday 14:00
🇺🇸 CPI (MoM) (Feb) on Wednesday 19:30
🇺🇸 CPI (YoY) (Feb) on Wednesday 19:30
🇺🇸 Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) on Wednesday 19:30
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday 21:30
🇬🇧 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks on Thursday 16:30
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday 19:30
🇬🇧 Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) on Friday 14:00
🇬🇧 Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jan) on Friday 14:00
🇬🇧 GDP (MoM) (Jan) on Friday 14:00
🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) (Q3) on Friday 19:30
🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) on Friday 19:30
🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan) on Friday 19:30
🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Jan) on Friday 21:00
🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Feb) on Tuesday 21:00
🇩🇪 German CPI (MoM) (Feb) on Wednesday 14:00
🇺🇸 CPI (MoM) (Feb) on Wednesday 19:30
🇺🇸 CPI (YoY) (Feb) on Wednesday 19:30
🇺🇸 Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) on Wednesday 19:30
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday 21:30
🇬🇧 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks on Thursday 16:30
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday 19:30
🇬🇧 Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jan) on Friday 14:00
🇬🇧 Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Jan) on Friday 14:00
🇬🇧 GDP (MoM) (Jan) on Friday 14:00
🇺🇸 GDP (QoQ) (Q3) on Friday 19:30
🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) on Friday 19:30
🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan) on Friday 19:30
🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings (Jan) on Friday 21:00
🇯🇵 Japan Growth Read on Tuesday: Japan’s Q4 GDP is an early regional sentiment input that can affect JPY and broader Asia risk tone, especially if growth either confirms resilience or shows renewed softness.
🇺🇸 U.S. Housing Check on Tuesday: Existing Home Sales gives traders a read on whether higher rates are still constraining the consumer housing channel, and a surprise here can shape the early U.S. growth narrative.
🇩🇪 EUR Inflation Signal on Wednesday: German CPI is an important input for EUR rates expectations because firmer inflation can support the euro through tighter policy pricing, while softer inflation can encourage easier policy expectations.
🇺🇸 Main U.S. Inflation Window on Wednesday: CPI YoY, CPI MoM, and Core CPI MoM form the week’s first major repricing event for USD. A hotter print can lift yields and support the dollar, while softer inflation can pressure yields and weaken USD through a more dovish pricing path.
🇺🇸 Energy to Inflation Link on Wednesday: Crude Oil Inventories can matter through the inflation channel. A large draw may support oil and keep inflation concerns elevated, while a build may cool energy pricing and soften rate pressure.
🇬🇧 BoE Communication Risk on Thursday: Bailey’s remarks can move GBP quickly if his tone shifts market expectations on inflation persistence, growth risk, or the likely BoE policy path.
🇺🇸 Labour Checkpoint on Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims is a key high frequency labour signal before Friday’s major U.S. releases. Lower claims can support yields and USD, while rising claims may raise cooling concerns.
🇬🇧 UK Growth Trio on Friday: Manufacturing Production, Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change, and GDP MoM together provide a strong read on UK momentum. If the set surprises positively, GBP can strengthen through improved growth expectations, while weak prints can pressure sterling.
🇺🇸 U.S. Growth and Inflation Finale on Friday: U.S. GDP together with Core PCE MoM and YoY creates the week’s most important late stage pricing window. This combination directly affects expectations for growth durability, inflation persistence, and Fed pricing.
🇺🇸 Labour Demand Follow Through on Friday: JOLTS Job Openings helps confirm whether labour demand remains firm. A stronger number can reinforce USD support after other U.S. releases, while a weaker print can amplify a softer macro interpretation.
This is an inflation-first and growth-later setup for USD traders, which means Wednesday’s CPI cluster may define the market tone first, while Thursday’s Jobless Claims and Friday’s GDP, Core PCE, and JOLTS sequence can either confirm or reverse that move. Housing data and crude inventories may add extra noise, but the main USD repricing risk is concentrated from mid-week to Friday night.
🟢 Bullish USD Scenario
- U.S. CPI MoM prints above the forecast of 0.20%, while Core CPI rebounds from the prior 0.30% softness concern and keeps inflation pressure alive
- CPI YoY comes in above the prior 2.40%, pushing yields higher through firmer inflation expectations
- Initial Jobless Claims stays below the prior 213K, showing labour conditions remain tight
- U.S. GDP beats the forecast 1.40%, helping restore confidence after the much stronger prior 4.30% reading
- Core PCE MoM holds firm above the prior 0.40% and Core PCE YoY stays above 3.00%, supporting a higher for longer Fed narrative
- JOLTS Job Openings rises above the prior 6.542M, reinforcing the view that labour demand remains resilient
🔴 Bearish USD Scenario
- U.S. CPI and Core CPI come in soft, reducing inflation pressure and pulling yields lower
- CPI YoY slips below the prior 2.40%, strengthening the disinflation narrative
- Initial Jobless Claims rises above 213K, signalling a softer labour backdrop
- U.S. GDP misses the 1.40% forecast, increasing doubts about growth momentum
- Core PCE MoM cools below the prior 0.40% and Core PCE YoY softens below 3.00%, encouraging more dovish policy pricing
- JOLTS falls below 6.542M, suggesting labour demand is weakening and reducing support for USD
🟡 Wild Cards (High Whipsaw Risk)
- A mixed inflation signal where CPI is firm, but Core PCE softens later can trigger sharp reversals in USD
- Crude Oil Inventories may distort inflation expectations if the surprise is large enough to move oil aggressively
- Bailey’s speech and the UK GDP cluster can create spillover volatility in GBPUSD even if U.S. data is not yet out
- A combination such as weaker GDP but firmer Core PCE can create choppy, non trending USD action rather than a clean directional move
- Friday’s sequence of GDP and Core PCE at 19:30 followed by JOLTS at 21:00 can create a second wave of repricing after the initial move
🟢 Bullish USD Scenario
- U.S. CPI MoM prints above the forecast of 0.20%, while Core CPI rebounds from the prior 0.30% softness concern and keeps inflation pressure alive
- CPI YoY comes in above the prior 2.40%, pushing yields higher through firmer inflation expectations
- Initial Jobless Claims stays below the prior 213K, showing labour conditions remain tight
- U.S. GDP beats the forecast 1.40%, helping restore confidence after the much stronger prior 4.30% reading
- Core PCE MoM holds firm above the prior 0.40% and Core PCE YoY stays above 3.00%, supporting a higher for longer Fed narrative
- JOLTS Job Openings rises above the prior 6.542M, reinforcing the view that labour demand remains resilient
🔴 Bearish USD Scenario
- U.S. CPI and Core CPI come in soft, reducing inflation pressure and pulling yields lower
- CPI YoY slips below the prior 2.40%, strengthening the disinflation narrative
- Initial Jobless Claims rises above 213K, signalling a softer labour backdrop
- U.S. GDP misses the 1.40% forecast, increasing doubts about growth momentum
- Core PCE MoM cools below the prior 0.40% and Core PCE YoY softens below 3.00%, encouraging more dovish policy pricing
- JOLTS falls below 6.542M, suggesting labour demand is weakening and reducing support for USD
🟡 Wild Cards (High Whipsaw Risk)
- A mixed inflation signal where CPI is firm, but Core PCE softens later can trigger sharp reversals in USD
- Crude Oil Inventories may distort inflation expectations if the surprise is large enough to move oil aggressively
- Bailey’s speech and the UK GDP cluster can create spillover volatility in GBPUSD even if U.S. data is not yet out
- A combination such as weaker GDP but firmer Core PCE can create choppy, non trending USD action rather than a clean directional move
- Friday’s sequence of GDP and Core PCE at 19:30 followed by JOLTS at 21:00 can create a second wave of repricing after the initial move
Check out full here: Followme Economic Calendar Tool
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