🇯🇵 Yen Outlook
Japan’s new fiscal stimulus is unintentionally trapping the Yen in weakness. By cutting energy costs, inflation stays artificially low, giving the BOJ no urgency to raise rates. This keeps real interest rates deeply negative — a major negative for JPY.
As USDJPY moves toward the 159–160 zone, the risk of government intervention rises sharply. Authorities may use thin liquidity periods, such as the US Thanksgiving holiday, to maximize the impact of any surprise action.
In short: weak inflation → BOJ stays dovish → Yen weakens → intervention risk rises.
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