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This song came to mind yesterday as I listened to ECB President Christine Lagarde during her press conference. The general impression was that the president and her colleagues on the ECB Governing Council are currently very comfortable with the current key interest rate level. This was also reflecte

EUR/USD is boosted by softer-than-expected US CPI and highest jobless claims in nearly four years.Dollar weakness offsets steady Eurozone policy, with ECB confirming data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting rate stance.Markets see Fed easing path intact, keeping EUR/USD supported above key 1.1700 level

XAU/USD Gold price holds within a narrow consolidation under new record high on Thursday and reduced pace ahead of release of US inflation report. Economists expect US consumer prices to rise further in August, mainly to be lifted by import tariffs, although optimism emerged from Wednesday’s lower t

Serbia’s economy slowed to around 2% y/y in the first half of 2025, with consumption remaining resilient but investment activity weakening sharply. Full-year growth expectatons have been revised down to 2.7%, though a rebound above 4% is expected in 2026, supported by Expo-related projects and new a

In focus today In the US, August producer prices (PPI) are due for release in the afternoon. This time, the PPI will attract even more attention than usual both because it is released ahead of the August CPI and because the previous July release surprised significantly to the upside. It will provide

The EUR/USD pair advanced for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, climbing towards 1.1772 USD. Growing concerns about a cooling US labour market are reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, weighing on the dollar. Investors are particularly focused on the upcoming revised employme

On the radarTrade surplus in Slovakia reached EUR 246.5 million. In Czechia, trade deficit was at CZK -1.7 billion and in Croatia at EUR -1752 million.Industrial output growth in Czechia surprised to the upside arriving at 4.9% y/y in July.Producer prices in Serbia increased by 1.3% y/y in August.Ro

The dollar limped into the weekend, sagging back toward recent lows after briefly catching some haven gusts when bond markets cracked earlier in the week. For those who were hoping for EUR/USD to tag 1.18, the move stalled shy, but the direction of travel is unmistakable: the Fed’s looming shift tow

The Dow Jones backslid on Friday, falling back below 45,500.NFP job gains came in well below expectations, adding further bets to Fed rate cuts.A steepening decline in job creation has gone too far, overshooting market hopes for rate cuts and reigniting recessionary concerns. The Dow Jones Industria

The US ISM manufacturing index was good for a few short-term pips, but it failed to give the dollar a real blow yesterday. This is hardly surprising. On the one hand, the ISM index has remained below the 50 mark for six months, at the same time showing a slight upward trend without really getting of

Bias for Euro (EUR) is tilted to the upside; it does appear to have enough momentum to break above 1.1720. In the longer run, upward momentum is starting to build; the probability of EUR breaking above 1.1720 is increasing, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. EUR is tilted to