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Markets have a way of testing conviction, and right now the dollar is the instrument everyone thinks they know but no one really trusts. For months, the bias has been short dollar — a crowding that made sense while the Fed’s scalpel looked ready to carve out cuts. But then the data arrived like a su

The US Dollar (USD) is weakening slightly on Monday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) losing 0.2% in the day, as traders await the release of the flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for September, scheduled for Tuesday at 13:45 GMT. Investors are assessing the contradictory forces

The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25%, as predicted by the markets. Published forecasts showed that the Fed is set to ease policy in October and December as well. This was also the main scenario priced into the quotes, but the reduction in uncertainty su

The Russian central bank (CBR) delivered a smaller interest rate cut on Friday than the median consensus estimate of 200bp (it cut by 100bp from 18% to 17%). Nearer the time of the meeting, expectations were, in fact, swinging towards the dovish-end of the spectrum because news about a downturn in t

Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to strengthen further but is unlikely to reach 0.6700. In the longer run, the price action continues to suggest a higher AUD; the next level to watch is 0.6700, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Price action continues to suggest a higher AU

In focus today In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revisions for Nonfarm Payrolls at 16CET. The revision affects data from April 2024 to March 2025. We expect a negative revision of -400k jobs. In France, attention turns to Presiden

AUD/USD rose to six-week highs around 0.6598, with traders eyeing a break above the 0.6600 psychological barrier.Focus turns to Tuesday’s US NFP benchmark revision, followed by PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday.In Australia, upcoming Westpac Consumer Confidence and NAB surveys will guide sentimen

US Dollar (USD) pared back some of Friday’s loss due to Japanese Yen (JPY) weakness. Versus other major currencies, USD remains under downside pressure, BBH FX analysts report. Fed to prioritize maximum employment over price stability "We expect the Fed to prioritize maximum employment over price st