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Those who read these morning notes regularly know how surprising I was to see such strong and much better-than-expected NFP reports month after month at a time when mass layoffs, deportations and tariff-driven uncertainty were supposed to weaken the US jobs market. Well, it appears that I was right

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This week isn’t about the inflation print alone—though the consensus number should be digestible enough to keep September’s cut in play. The real story is how the market absorbs the torrent of data and revisions appearing on the screens. We’re back to the old riddle: does “bad news” still lift risk,

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EUR/USD is set for a return above 1.170, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/USD to remain moderately bullish for the coming months "As discussed above, markets might not go too aggressive on a Fed dovish repricing (unless US jobs figures are particularly bad), but there is already enough i

Bitcoin is already declining, and miners continue to move higher. Sounds familiar? It should, if you’ve been following both markets for at least a few years. Warning signs emerge We saw something like that in 2022, when the precious metals market was topping. In particular, miners were strong right

The short-term Elliott Wave outlook for Gold (XAUUSD) indicates a sustained upward impulse from the July 31, 2025 low. The rally began with wave 1 peaking at 3409.4, followed by a wave 2 pullback concluding at 3311.26. This wave 2 correction formed a double three Elliott Wave pattern. Specifically,

Before diving into the topic of "depreciation," consider the currency fluctuations Taiwan experienced over the past year: in the first half of 2025, the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) once depreciated past 33 per USD, hitting a nearly nine-year low. This highlights the economic risks and investment opportu

When Fed Chair Jerome Powell stepped up at Jackson Hole in August 2025, he didn’t announce sweeping changes or bold new plans. Instead, he dropped a single subtle phrase — that policy “may warrant adjusting.” Those three words were enough to send shockwaves through global markets. Stocks ripped high

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The Euro clings to support above 1.6125 after having been rejected at 1.1690 for the second consecutive time.Weak German Gross Domestic Product data is likely to weigh on the Euro on Friday.EUR/CAD; A break below 1.6080 would confirm a Double top pattern. The Euro is losing momentum against the Cana

Mexican Peso appreciates 0.25%, as traders punish the Greenback on US political noise.Mexico inflation falls to 3.51% YoY, strengthening odds for a Banxico cut to 7.50% in September.Citi survey: Peso expected to stay strong, USD/MXN seen near 19.50 by year-end. USD/MXN retreated on Wednesday as inve

Hardly anyone will be interested in what the minutes of the last FOMC meeting at the end of July reveal this evening. The decisive factor for the market will be what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says in his speech on Friday at the conference in Jackson Hole, which begins tomorrow. If he wanted to anno