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Oil Price Forecast: WTI rallies to $74 before settling above $72
WTI Oil surges above $72 as Israel-Iran tensions trigger a breakout.Gains for June are near 20%, pushing prices above key Fibonacci levels from longer-term moves.The 12-month moving average provides additional support below $70. WTI crude oil is surging amid escalating geopolitical tensions, with Is
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USD/JPY trades cautiously as markets focus on US-China trade talks
USD/JPY eases toward 144.00 as trade talks take center stage.The United States and China attempt to restore trade relations, benefiting risk sentiment.Japan makes progress with its own talks with the US, limiting the Yen’s decline. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is steadying against the US Dollar (USD) on M
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ECB poised to cut 25bps into their estimated neutral rate range
EU mid-market update: ECB poised to cut 25bps into their estimated neutral rate range but market sees another cut on horizon; Forward guidance in focus. Notes/observations - With ECB decision in focus, recent commentary and inflation data has all but guaranteed a 25bps cut, taking Deposit Rate to 2.
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US ISM Manufacturing misses consensus in May
ISM Manufacturing PMI deflated to 48.5 in May, missing consensus.The US Dollar remains well on the defensive, flirting with multi-week lows. Economic activity in the US manufacturing sector lost momentum in May, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI receding to 48.5 from 48.7 in April, coming in below anal
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Fed chief Powell delivers a speech this afternoon and hope of any guidance will surely be dashed
Today we get the final manufacturing PMI’s for everybody—the UK, US, France, Germany and the eurozone. The composites come on Wednesday. PMI had become the top indicator among the high frequency indicators but has lost the crown to trade nonsense. Fed chief Powell delivers a speech this afternoon an
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Narratives collide: When the tape tells two stories
Markets are a confidence game wrapped in a narrative machine. Traders don’t move on facts—they move on stories they believe. And right now, Wall Street is being spun in opposite directions. Start with bonds. Long-end yields didn’t just drift—they thudded lower after Tokyo grabbed a wrench and began
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Fed's Cook: Bond markets were 'orderly' in April, but seeing rising stress in households
Federal Reserve (Fed) Board of Governors member Dr. Lisa Cook noted on Friday during a hosted event at New York University that while US economic factors were strong during the first quarter, Fed policymakers are beginning to see signs of stress in key industries, namely housing and commercial real
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GBP/USD rises to near 1.3450 ahead of UK PMI data
GBP/USD strengthens as the US Dollar continues to weaken on Moody’s downgrading of the US credit rating.Fed policymakers partially blamed the US trade policy change for shaky consumer and corporate confidence.The Pound Sterling receives support from stronger-than-expected UK inflation data released
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NZD/USD rises as Trump touts Ukraine talks, Moody’s downgrade drags US Dollar
Moody’s downgrades US credit rating, fueling USD weakness.Trump announces Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations.New Zealand inflation expectations rise, but rate cut still expected. The NZD/USD pair is climbing at the start of the week, trading around the 0.5900 level after President Donald Trump cl
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