BREAKING: Trump Declares Iran‑Israel Ceasefire — WTI Collapses 4% as Oil Risk Premium Evaporates

BREAKING: Trump Declares Iran‑Israel Ceasefire — WTI Collapses 4% as Oil Risk Premium Evaporates

This morning, former US President Donald Trump surprised markets by announcing a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Though neither government has verified the claim, the impact was immediate—and dramatic.

 Oil Crash: WTI Falls to $65.46, Brent at $68.79

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plunged nearly 4%, settling at $65.46/barrel—its lowest in over a week  .

• Brent crude also dropped approximately 3.8% to $68.79/barrel  .

  The sudden plunge erased the “war premium” priced in last week amid fears of Middle East escalation .

 Gold & Safe-Havens: Upended

• Gold corrected from recent highs near $3,368/oz to around $3,352–$3,353/oz  .

• The USD/JPY pair decreased ~0.45%, moving from ~146.15 to 145.5 JPY as risk-off flows retreated  .

 Forex Shake-Up: Yen Falls, Risk Currencies Rise

• USD/JPY slid roughly 0.7% to 145.5, easing pressure on the yen .

• Commodity-linked FX like CAD and AUD posted modest gains, spurred by easing oil prices.

 Market Outlook: Why It Matters

1. Oil Volatility: Drops under $66 open technical downside risks—$57 support and $44 bottom range are now eyed  .

2. Safe-Haven Rotation: As war premium fades, flows may shift back to equities. But any disconfirmation of the ceasefire could bring another round of risk-off.

3. Currency Pair Strategies:

   • USD/JPY: Consider short-term reversal trades as risk sentiment shifts.

   • AUD/CAD: Watch responsiveness to commodity trends and global risk appetite.

   • Gold (XAU/USD): Look for support around $3,350–$3,352, with resistance near $3,368.

4. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Trump’s statement, unsupported by official sources, could trigger whipsaw moves unless validated.

 What Traders Should Watch Next

• Official confirmations from Iran and Israel—notably within 24 hours.

• Upcoming OPEC+ statements—any production cuts could reverse oil declines.

• US economic data/Fed signals—dovish tones may influence USD trends further.

 Time to engage:

Are you adjusting your forex or commodity positions after this bombshell?

Share your strategies—let’s dissect what this ceasefire claim means for your trades