BREAKING: Trump Declares Iran‑Israel Ceasefire — WTI Collapses 4% as Oil Risk Premium Evaporates
This morning, former US President Donald Trump surprised markets by announcing a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Though neither government has verified the claim, the impact was immediate—and dramatic.
Oil Crash: WTI Falls to $65.46, Brent at $68.79
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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plunged nearly 4%, settling at $65.46/barrel—its lowest in over a week .
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Brent crude also dropped approximately 3.8% to $68.79/barrel .
The sudden plunge erased the “war premium” priced in last week amid fears of Middle East escalation .
Gold & Safe-Havens: Upended
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Gold corrected from recent highs near $3,368/oz to around $3,352–$3,353/oz .
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The USD/JPY pair decreased ~0.45%, moving from ~146.15 to 145.5 JPY as risk-off flows retreated .
Forex Shake-Up: Yen Falls, Risk Currencies Rise
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USD/JPY slid roughly 0.7% to 145.5, easing pressure on the yen .
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Commodity-linked FX like CAD and AUD posted modest gains, spurred by easing oil prices.
Market Outlook: Why It Matters
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Oil Volatility: Drops under $66 open technical downside risks—$57 support and $44 bottom range are now eyed .
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Safe-Haven Rotation: As war premium fades, flows may shift back to equities. But any disconfirmation of the ceasefire could bring another round of risk-off.
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Currency Pair Strategies:
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USD/JPY: Consider short-term reversal trades as risk sentiment shifts.
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AUD/CAD: Watch responsiveness to commodity trends and global risk appetite.
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Gold (XAU/USD): Look for support around $3,350–$3,352, with resistance near $3,368.
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Geopolitical Uncertainty: Trump’s statement, unsupported by official sources, could trigger whipsaw moves unless validated.
What Traders Should Watch Next
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Official confirmations from Iran and Israel—notably within 24 hours.
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Upcoming OPEC+ statements—any production cuts could reverse oil declines.
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US economic data/Fed signals—dovish tones may influence USD trends further.
Time to engage:
Are you adjusting your forex or commodity positions after this bombshell?
Share your strategies—let’s dissect what this ceasefire claim means for your trades
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