Consensus data, Headline inflation 3.3, Core CPI 4.8 Scenario 1 If the data prints higher than expected that is core CPI at 5.0 and Headline inflation at 3.5 market participants might interpret inflation as being sticky this will influence them to price for another rate hike either in September or N

What is the FED view on inflation? Does it expect it to rise compared with June report? What is the FED view on fed funds rate? Does it expect a raise or fall compared with June report? Hawkish Fed FOMC is made up of 18 members. · More than 10 members expect core P

A price breakout from a consolidation price structure suggests more pain for the euro is in sight. It is the second entry for those who did not get the opportunity to sell with my first recommendation. 

The US economy is showing resilience, especially in the services sector. The US consumer sentiment is optimistic, being supported by wage gains and falling inflation expectations. The core PCE is at 4.6 percent which is above the 2 percent FED target. Canada's inflation is falling faster than the US

Currencies have a positive correlation with expected future interest rates. Bonds yields on the short end of the curve are primarily driven by interest rates expectations which means that short-term bond yields embed expected future interest rates. Currency pairs represent two nations so it’s impera

The yield spread between Germany 2-year bond yields and United States equivalent has been widening in favor of the dollar for the last two trading days. Historically the yield spread leads or moves in tandem with exchange rates. Europe is more exposed to global recession due to its economy being mor

The yield spread between Germany 2-year bond yields and United States equivalent has been widening in favor of the dollar for the last two trading days. Historically the yield spread leads or moves in tandem with exchange rates. Europe is more exposed to global recession due to its economy being mor

A safe haven asset retains its value or appreciate over time making it a good hedge against inflation and stock market turmoil. However, Risk assets tend to fall during a crisis. Stocks are considered risky while Bitcoin is considered a safe haven asset because its supply is capped. Recent events ar

Yields on long maturity bonds are driven by future growth and inflation expectations. When bond yields of different maturities are plotted on a curve they depict term structure of interests rates. Investors fear a behind the curve FED will tighten policy aggressively causing a recession. Fed funds f

Yields on long maturity bonds are driven by future growth and inflation expectations. When bond yields of different maturities are plotted on a curve they depict term structure of interests rates. Investors fear a behind the curve FED will tighten policy aggressively causing a recession. Fed funds f