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Yields on long maturity bonds are driven by future growth and inflation expectations. When bond yields of different maturities are plotted on a curve they depict term structure of interests rates. Investors fear a behind the curve FED will tighten policy aggressively causing a recession. Fed funds f

A safe haven asset retains its value or appreciate over time making it a good hedge against inflation and stock market turmoil. However, Risk assets tend to fall during a crisis. Stocks are considered risky while Bitcoin is considered a safe haven asset because its supply is capped. Recent events ar

The yield spread between Germany 2-year bond yields and United States equivalent has been widening in favor of the dollar for the last two trading days. Historically the yield spread leads or moves in tandem with exchange rates. Europe is more exposed to global recession due to its economy being mor

Currencies have a positive correlation with expected future interest rates. Bonds yields on the short end of the curve are primarily driven by interest rates expectations which means that short-term bond yields embed expected future interest rates. Currency pairs represent two nations so it’s impera

The US economy is showing resilience, especially in the services sector. The US consumer sentiment is optimistic, being supported by wage gains and falling inflation expectations. The core PCE is at 4.6 percent which is above the 2 percent FED target. Canada's inflation is falling faster than the US